The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects that India will account for 25% of the growth in global oil demand in 2025, highlighting a major shift in the dynamics of the global energy market.
This was stated in a Forbes magazine report published by analyst Gaurav Sharma, where the report confirmed that India is emerging as a major factor in oil demand, overtaking China, which has been leading this growth for decades.
Expected growth in Indian demand
According to estimates by the US Energy Information Administration, India’s consumption of liquid fuels is expected to rise by 330,000 barrels per day in 2025, compared to a growth of 220,000 barrels per day in 2024.
In contrast, China’s consumption of liquid fuel is expected to grow by only 250,000 barrels per day in 2025, after a modest increase of 90,000 barrels per day in 2024.
The report noted that Indian demand is driven by increased consumption of transportation fuels and household cooking fuels, while Chinese demand is witnessing a slowdown due to the expansion in the use of electric vehicles, increasing reliance on liquefied natural gas to transport goods, and declining population and economic growth.
Despite the rapid growth of Indian demand, China’s total oil consumption is still much larger.
In 2023, India’s consumption of liquid fuels reached 5.3 million barrels per day, while China’s consumption exceeded 16.4 million barrels per day, according to administration estimates.
Diversify sources
Indian Minister of Petroleum and Natural Gas Hardeep Singh Puri confirmed at the “JASTEC 2024” conference in Houston that the Indian economy will contribute about 25% of the growth in global oil demand in the near and medium future.
The minister noted that India has expanded its oil supplier base to include 39 countries in 2024, compared to 27 countries in the previous year, highlighting India’s strategy to diversify its sources.
As dynamics shift in China and its economic growth slows, India has become a focal point for global oil market hopes.
This trend supports the efforts of the Indian government, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to enhance cooperation with new international partners to meet the growing demand.
