No suspense in Nevada: Donald Trump is guaranteed to win against Nikki Haley the only votes that count for the Republican nomination in the presidential election in November, due to an electoral system which creates confusion in this state of the American West.
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Republican residents are in fact offered not one possibility of voting to decide between the candidates, but two: first a primary on Tuesday, then caucuses on Thursday, local assemblies of voters during which the party’s champion is designated.
An electoral system is so complicated that even Americans have difficulty understanding it.
Ask them what’s happening in Nevada this week and most will tell you about the “Super Bowl” scheduled for Sunday in Las Vegas, which pits the San Francisco 49ers against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The vote “doesn’t really matter” because “people aren’t very attentive,” summarizes Peter Loge, political scientist at George Washington University.
The reason for this unprecedented situation: former Democratic Governor Steve Sisolak promulgated a law in 2021 establishing a primary vote, replacing the traditional caucuses organized in the state for years.
- Listen to the American political column with Professor Luc Laliberté via QUB :
Implemented by the State, a primary in fact increases the possibilities for voters to vote, whatever the place, time or form, for example with the option of the postal ballot. In contrast, caucuses, organized by the party, involve the physical presence of voters, ID in hand, in a specific location and at a specific time.
But in an America where Donald Trump is still contesting his 2020 defeat against Joe Biden, voting by mail is the subject of conspiracy theories likening it to a scheme to manipulate the results.
The Republican Party of Nevada, controlled by the former president in the campaign, therefore refused the new calendar for a primary, maintaining caucuses two days later. Worse, the party banned any candidate aligned in the primary from participating in the caucuses.
As a result, Nikki Haley appears on the primary ballot on Tuesday, without Donald Trump. And Donald Trump is on the caucus ballot Thursday, without Nikki Haley.
Unfortunately for the latter, only the caucuses will determine who will receive the support of the 26 party delegates. Therefore, Donald Trump will definitely pocket these delegates and the ex-real estate tycoon is accused of having twisted the rules to his advantage.
“Caucus participants stand out for their fervor, they are truly enthusiastic and mobilized activists for their candidate, ready to sacrifice time in their day to go vote in a smelly gymnasium. This is precisely the kind of supporters that Trump has,” underlines Daniel Lee, political scientist at the University of Nevada in Las Vegas.
Enough to discourage anti-Trump conservatives.
“There’s no point in participating in the caucus. I can’t vote for my candidate,” laments Charles Fruit, a supporter of Nikki Haley, quoted by the Las Vegas Review-Journal. “Basically, they are taking away my right to vote. And this is happening in my own Republican Party. I am very unhappy.”
Results from the primaries, both Republican and Democratic, are expected around 7 p.m. Tuesday (3 a.m. GMT Wednesday). Those for the Republican caucuses are to be announced Thursday, according to the party.
