Syrian President Ahmed Al -Sharaa has signed an agreement this week with the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the oppressor of Abdi, to integrate it into state institutions, without addressing how to deal with the East Euphrates region economically, especially those that contain oil wells and strategic commodities such as wheat and cotton.
The agreement was concluded with an American guarantee, with political and security motives, as experts suggest that Washington has – through this agreement – has maintained its influence in eastern Syria without an open confrontation, at a time of the interest of the Damascus government in it regaining control over the east of the Euphrates without an expensive war.
The current reality of the oil sector
The confirmed Syrian oil reserves in the last census of 2015 are estimated at about 2.5 billion barrels, according to the American Energy Journal, and in the period before 2011 the average oil production reached 350 thousand barrels per day.
The average consumption reached 350 thousand barrels per day, and Syria imported average of 105 thousand barrels per day of condensate (diesel, gasoline, and kerosene).
Syrian economist Younis Al-Karim says that the current production of oil wells in the East Euphrates region is estimated at 125-150 thousand barrels per day.
He adds to Al -Jazeera Net that all Syrian fields are produced at the present time, and what you need is new technologies to raise production to pre -2011 levels.
The Syrian oil infrastructure needs to restructure and develop years, after the wells were subjected to decay as a result of the use of traditional methods in the production process, which affected the actual ability of its work.
The electricity sector
The electricity sector in Syria suffers from difficulties and challenges, most notably the inability to secure the fuel needed to make thermal stations.
Al -Karim says that the agreement between the Damascus government and “SDF” may lead to the government’s acquisition of a large percentage of oil that may reach two thirds of production for a period of 9 months, until the success of the agreement between the Damascus government and the Syrian Democratic Forces.
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The economic researcher at the Bridges Center for Studies, Abdel Azim Al -Maghrib, expects that the agreement includes the flow of fuel regularly for power plants, in a manner that improves industrial production and transportation, and limits the fuel crisis that negatively affected various sectors during the past decade.
It indicates that the flow of fuel from the oil fields from the East Euphrates will raise the production capacity of electricity to 4500 megawatts if the electrical stations are supplied and repaired, and then it will reduce the rationing and lead to an increase in electrical feeding hours to the number of hours higher per day, and this will be a significant improvement compared to the current situation.
The development of the oil sector
The regions of East Euphrates, which is controlled by “SDF”, are not covered by US and European sanctions, so companies that intend to enter to invest in the Syrian oil sector will not be vulnerable to US and European sanctions.
According to the Karim, the agreement signed between the Damascus government and “SDF” would encourage foreign companies to enter Syria to invest in oil wells, and American companies may be the closest to investment in Syrian oil, especially in the Swedish, age and Ramlan fields, the three largest fields in the country.
The Syrian oil sector needs to restructure and maintain production and refining, and secure the fuel needed to produce electricity through thermal stations.
Economy recovery
Researcher Abdel Azim Al -Maghrib believes that the agreement reached between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces represents an important step towards restoring control of national resources in the entire country.
The agreement is reflected positively on the Syrian economy and the provision of hydrocarbons and electric energy, because the agreement will lay the foundations for rebuilding the economy and the stability of the energy sector, which enhances development and reduces the suffering of Syrian citizens in the country, according to the Maghrib.
The same spokesman indicates that the oil resources management in eastern Syria by the Syrian government will allow the increase in supplies to the local market, to start with 150 thousand barrels per day, which contributes to the stability of prices and the provision of a vital financial resource for the state, in addition to supporting agricultural production by securing the necessary fuel for agricultural equipment.
Al -Maghrib says that the rational administration of the oil and agricultural resources of eastern Syria regions will reduce dependence on import and help partially circumvent the sanctions, especially since these areas provide the country with a large percentage of the country’s need for wheat, for example.
The Maghrib emphasizes that the success of this agreement may constitute an important step towards stability, and then reduce US and international sanctions, which facilitates the return of foreign investments.
On the other hand, “SDF” will achieve financial gains from the export of oil at international market prices, instead of selling it on the black market at low prices.
Challenges
The cream believes that oil wells will remain under the control of the “SDF” forces of a group of factors represented in:
FirstlyThe presence of American forces in the areas of oil wells, and the withdrawal of these forces needs a presidential decision and the Pentagon, and it also needs measures that may take a long time.
secondly: If forces from the Syrian government enter the areas of oil wells, this will push the countries to apply international sanctions to the East Euphrates region, including oil wells, because international sanctions are still applied to the Syrian government and do not include the “SDF” forces and their areas.
Third: The Damascus government or the “SDF” administration was not issued any statements about the method of dealing financially with the transportation of oil. Will the government pay “SDF” as before? Or will the two parties agree to share oil revenues and its production.
Fourth: International companies specialized in the energy sector are awaiting an expanded government in Syria so that they can sign international agreements, because the continuation of the current business government is delaying the entry of companies, so legally is not entitled to the work of conducting businesses to sign international economic deals.
