Madrid – With the dust of the incident, which was described as the largest of its kind in the history of the country, economic experts see that the wide interruption in electricity and the Internet services from the entire Iberian Peninsula, last Monday, will be limited and compensation.
While the Spanish government considered that the initial loss is valued at 400 million euros (452.8 million dollars), analysts estimated that the total economic losses estimated between 900 million euros (one billion dollars) and 1.5 billion euros (1.7 billion dollars).
These estimates indicate that the value of the losses is less than the daily economic product of Spain, which amounts to about 4.5 billion euros (5.1 billion dollars), and therefore, the effect on the GDP for the month of April is expected to be limited, between 0.1% and 0.2%.
Observers promised that the value of the losses cannot be easily determined, by virtue of the fact that the electrical current lasted for a period ranging from 6 to 10 hours and gradually returned in several regions, and that some commercial sectors continued to work in a complete or partial work, while other sectors were largely idle such as the industry and transportation.
While investigations are still ongoing to determine the accurate causes of interruption, efforts that focus on enhancing the elasticity of the electrical network continue to prevent such interruptions in the future.
Government estimates
Spanish Economy Minister Carlos Cuerbo announced on Wednesday that the wide range of electrical power in the country will have a primary negative impact on the macroeconomic economy of up to 400 million euros.
However, he stressed that the value of the losses is estimated based on the low purchase rate during the interruption period, and he said, “This does not mean an absolute loss of these millions, as a large part of it will be recovered in the coming days due to the restoration of the electrical current relatively quickly,” he said.
The minister pointed out that these data depend on the decrease in the purchase rate by 55% of the electronic payment gates, compared to Monday, April 7, last.
According to the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the economic activity on Tuesday, the next day after the interruption, was 9% higher than the average on Tuesday, which led to the achievement of additional revenues of 100 million euros (113.2 million dollars), and the economic activity was 25% higher compared to the similar Wednesday, which added 30 million euros (34 million dollars) another.
Despite these losses, Quirbo stressed that the influence on GDP will be limited and ranges between 0.1% and 0.2%, noting that many economic activities have come out quickly after interruption.
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Expert appreciation
The Spanish newspaper “Elpias” quoted the Economy Professor at the University of Pablo de Olavidy in Seville, Manuel Heidalgo, as saying that the losses of the day of Monday, when the comprehensive interruption of electricity and the Internet occurred, estimated at about one billion euros.
Hidalgo explained that this is the worst scenario, because it should be taken into account that many of the activities continued during the interruption period, and the doors of some restaurants and shops remained open.
The economist stated that some sectors that depend on long -term operations were not widely affected, such as the tourism services sector, agriculture and livestock, and marine and land transport.
The economic expert at the Funix Economic Research Center, Maria Jesus Fernandez, confirmed that the domestic product in the days that followed the day of the crisis instead of some losses caused by the day of the interruption.
Fernandez told Elpias that measuring the actual loss of growth in an accurate way seems very difficult, and she said, “It will be difficult to see this in the second quarter numbers because it will be small, and there are other important factors that affect the expense of the product value, such as the trade war” in reference to the customs duties imposed by US President Donald Trump on the European Union.
The winners and losers
The interruption of electricity and the Internet services made the process of buying and selling limited to payment in cash, which prompted some institutions that depend on providing their services on the payment mechanism by cards to close their doors, and the process of withdrawing money from the ATMs of banks was also suspended.
In the daily purchasing sector and the “supermarket” stores, the power outage caused the closure of some major stores, which in return caused pressure on groceries and small stores, which people rushed to request the purchase of basic products, such as water, baked goods and cans, in addition to health products such as bathroom leaves, as these products have already run out of some stores.
The electrical and electronic tool stores also witnessed a strong demand for the purchase of radio devices and lamps that operate battery, and gas stoves, in addition to mobile phone charging devices.
While some restaurants closed their doors due to the failure of the payment mechanism using cards or due to the inability to complete the cooking process at all, some small and medium -sized restaurants that depend on gas in cooking, or those that offer cold products and were keen to sell them before their corruption due to the stopping of cooling operations.
Strong performance
Bloomberg said in a report a few days ago that the Spanish economy, which is led by local consumption, showed a strong performance during the first quarter of 2025, but last Monday’s electricity cuts may cast a shadow over growth and limit its rise.
The GDP increased by 0.6% during the period from January to March compared to the previous quarter, according to official data issued on Tuesday, a performance close to the fourth quarter of 0.7%, and is almost compatible with the expectations of analysts whose views polled.
Last week, the International Monetary Fund raised its expectations for Spain’s GDP to 2.5% during 2025.
The Bloomberg Economics Unit warned that the power outage, which also affected Portugal, may lead to a decline of up to 0.5% of the semester GDP.
