The writer “Arthur Sullivan” published a report on the “Deutsche Welle” website that highlighted the ability of the Russian economy to overcome Western sanctions by redirecting its trade towards China and India.
The writer said that nothing has changed economically for Moscow during the three years that have passed since the Russian -Ukrainian war, as much as its commercial relations changed with the rest of the world.
In 2021, nearly 50% of Russia’s exports went to European countries, including Belarus and Ukraine, and the largest part of those exports of energy products were.
By the end of 2023, less than two years after the war began on February 24, 2022, the image changed.
Chinese sweep
According to the writer, the Figures of the Organization for Economic Cooperation for 2023 show that China and India top the main markets received for Russian exports, as they acquired 32.7% and 16.8%, respectively, while in 2021 China acquired 14.6% of Russian exports, while India accounted for the same year On only 1.56%.
These two countries have erased the share of the export market, which was previously acquired by European countries, and the numbers in 2023 show that European countries are barely captured 15% of Russian exports, which is a significant decrease from 50% that were accountable for two years ago.
While the Economic Cooperation Organization has not yet published the numbers in 2024, data for other sources indicate that exporting destinations are still largely in line with the numbers of 2023.
The available commercial data depends on official statistics only, which means that the oil that is shipped by the so -called Russian shadow fleet is not included in the statistics, which if its exports are added, it is possible that it will show that China and India are importing more Russia.
According to Kyiv School of Economics, at least 70% of Russia’s total exports of crude oil transported by sea are carried out through the shadow fleet, where India, China and Turkey acquires up to 95% of purchases.
From west to east
The writer explained that the image of Russian exports has changed since 2022 is summarized in two factors:
- The European Union has moved greatly away from the purchase of Russian oil and gas.
- The solutions of China and India are placed as a major buyer.
The imports of the European Union of Russian crude oil decreased by 90% since the war began in Ukraine, while it decreased by Russian gas, which imports the union from 40% in 2021 to 15% in 2024.
According to Zult Darfas (a researcher at the Brugel Center, which works to track down Russian trade), countries that did not impose sanctions on Russia, most notably China, Turkey, Kazakhstan and some other countries, have increased their trade with Russia very significantly.
According to the numbers of the Organization of Economic Cooperation, Russian exports to Türkiye increased from 4.18% in 2021 to 7.86% in 2023, while Kazakhstan and Hungary have witnessed modest increases since 2021.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ejtgagkhlps
Did Russia become China?
The writer stated that the most important general change for Russia is the nature of its relationship with China in both trade and political geography.
For her part, Ribakova, an economic expert at the Peterson Institute for International Economy in Washington, DC, sees that Russia is now affiliated with China.
Ribakova believes that China also helps in facilitating the delivery of western -made components to Russia, especially the so -called double -use materials that can be used for civil and military purposes alike.
Writer Sullivan returned to confirm that the extent of China’s growth cannot be denied as a provider of Russia’s imports. According to the data of the Organization for Economic Cooperation, China provided Russia with a huge rate of 53% of its imports in 2023, a significant increase over 25.7% in 2021.
The writer says that the tremendous shift towards goods made in China clog the European Export Agency. In 2021, the European Union countries, in addition to the United Kingdom, were responsible for more than a third of Russian imports, and by the end of 2023, the number decreased to less than 20%.
As for Beijing, the data of the Organization for Economic Cooperation indicates that 38% of the goods that were sold to Moscow in 2023 at a value of $ 110 billion were a wide range of machinery and components products, and about 21% of them were related to transportation, such as cars, trucks and tractors Car spare parts, and China has sold billions of dollars in metal, plastic, rubber, chemical products and textiles.
New world
The writer pointed out that Russia’s trade has changed, but it is not necessarily better as Darfas believes that Russia is surviving, but it does not get the same quality of products as it was before, which will have an impact on the economy.
The writer concluded his report with what Ribakova said that things did not develop “as bad as many in Moscow from Moscow”, but it warns that relying on Beijing makes Russia vulnerable, as China is the guardian of the trade gateway for Russia, while the latter is for Beijing as a partner In the crime, but “not an indispensable partner.”
