Six million Syrians, residing under temporary protection in neighboring countries and Europe, are preparing to return to their country, after the Syrian armed opposition operations room overthrew the regime of ousted President Bashar al-Assad on December 8, 2024.
Immediately upon assuming power, the Syrian Interim Administration called on all people who fled to escape the oppression of the former regime to return and participate in building a new Syria, under a democratic system that respects the rights of everyone without exclusion.
The United Nations expects the return of about a million Syrian refugees during the first six months of this year, after the way has been paved for their return following the end of a dark era that lasted 61 years of Baath rule and 53 years of control by a family that turned the country into a human slaughterhouse in which hundreds of thousands of innocent people were killed outside the country. rule of law.
This report explores the multiple impacts of this dramatic transformation, highlighting the economic and social challenges that await Turkey, and questioning the ability of the Turkish economy to adapt to this new reality in light of the departure of a skilled workforce that has become an integral part of its economic fabric.
Türkiye and labor shortage
In the past few weeks, the Turkish-Syrian border crossings, such as Cilvegozo, Oncupinar, and Yayladağı, have witnessed the influx of large numbers of refugees, amid fears of Turkish industry leaders about the possible impact of the sudden departure of Syrian workers from their workplaces on the reality of production, with the lack of local alternatives. qualified to replace it.
According to Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerli Kaya, the number of those who have left Turkey so far has exceeded 53,000 Syrian refugees belonging to different age groups, while thousands of families continue their preparations to return as soon as their children finish the current school year.
The day after Assad fled the country, the Gaziantep Ulusum newspaper published a report entitled: Where are the Syrians? It quoted one of the owners of Turkish production workshops in the industrial zone as saying, “The workers who work in the factories have not gone to work – without warning – for two days,” and he pointed out that this sudden absence would disrupt production in most of the facilities that belong to them, and that most Industrial workshops resorted to re-adjusting and reducing their production significantly.
One of the producers indicated that the sudden situation forced him to reduce production significantly, explaining, “We had 8 workers in the workshop, but now we are trying to hold out with only 3 or 4. The absence of Syrian workers has affected our ability to fulfill orders on time, causing a series of delays.” Which reflects on us and our customers.”
Aleppo and Gaziantep… twinning interests and traditions
Historically, the relationship between the Turkish city of Gaziantep and the Syrian city of Aleppo seems much closer than the distance that separates them on both sides of the border. The two cities were linked by ancient twin bonds, human relations, common traditions, and mutual economic and commercial interests, which prompted most of the Syrians who left the regions of northern Syria during the war. Leo consider it the preferred destination for their stay.
Today, the city is classified as the Turkish city most crowded with Syrians, as their number – according to data from the Immigration Department – reached about 460 thousand Syrians, 91% of whom are residents of the city of Aleppo and its countryside. It ranked second after Istanbul in terms of their residency. The latter hosted – according to a report by the Istanbul Planning Agency (IPA) – about 550,000 Syrians, who constituted 3.28% of the city’s total population.
Bassam Turkawi, an expert on human development issues who resides in Turkey, believes that it is not difficult to understand the enthusiasm shown by the Syrians since the beginning of 2012 in choosing Gaziantep as a place of refuge, as the city, with its economic and social environment, has been the closest Turkish city to them over a long history.
He explained in his interview with Al Jazeera Net that the ease of access to the vital services they need, and the existence of a social development model provided by the city administration that included the sectors of industry, trade, and local and civil cooperation, in addition to other government facilities, all constituted factors that helped those who were relying at the beginning of the asylum on their savings for spending. To engage in the labor market or establish small commercial or industrial enterprises that later developed into entities distinguished by their importance at the level of the city’s economy.
Within a short period, according to Turkawi, the Syrians achieved tangible successes, whether as skilled workers or investors in the fields of manufacturing and export, especially in the ready-made clothing, food, and other production sectors, as they provided noticeable support to the Turkish economy amounting to about 3%, in When it supported Turkish exports by about 5 billion dollars annually.
Syrian companies are at the forefront of foreign-financed companies
Turkey ranks second in the world after the United States of America in the carpet industry, and its market share has reached approximately 40%, in addition to its success in the food industry, including traditional sweets, in addition to its production of pistachios, the value of which it exported in 2023 amounted to approximately 152 million. dollar.
While Gaziantep is considered one of the most prominent manufacturing and exporting cities in the country, as the ready-made clothing and carpet industry is concentrated there.
During recent years, Syrians have succeeded in reaching remarkable numbers with their contributions to the economic and commercial activity of the city, and the annual report of the Gaziantep Chamber of Commerce (GTO), which recorded the presence of 3,083 foreign-funded companies in 2023, indicates that the share of companies Of these, 2,610 companies were Syrian, followed in succession by Iraqi companies, then German companies, then French companies.
In this regard, the Mayor of the Greater Gaziantep Municipality, Fatima Sahin, pointed out the existence of joint Turkish-Syrian factories, in which Syrian expertise was benefited from, such as shoe manufacturing, adding, “We are good at making men’s shoes, while they are better than us at making women’s shoes.”
Local experts describe the “Nizip” market, the center of the shoe and slipper industry, as the biggest competitor to Chinese companies in the global market, as – according to Tevik Binder, vice president of the Gaziantep Shoe Industry Chamber – about 500 companies operate in it, producing approximately two million pairs of slippers and shoes daily. He stressed the existence of a competitive situation that Chinese shoe manufacturers are now afraid of, “because we have serious and very good capabilities in this field,” he said.
On the other hand, according to Fatima Shaheen, Syrian workers were of great importance due to their good command of the Arabic and English languages, and she described their role in trade and opening new foreign markets as active.
Local sources estimate that there are about 10,000 Syrian workers, working officially in various economic and service sectors, while thousands work unofficially, away from the eyes of oversight.
A study published by the International Labor Organization in February 2023 on the employment trends of Syrians showed that most of them work in the sectors of textile, industry, construction, services, car maintenance and repair, leather products manufacturing, and the food sector.
The study showed that the process of recruiting Syrian workers reached its peak in 2018, reaching 1.2 million Syrians in terms of participation in the labor force in Türkiye, most of them males.
In this context, Turkish journalist Celal Demir believes that the most important thing that characterized Gaziantep, and the reason for the success of its relationship with the refugees and benefiting from their ability, is that it did not wait long to integrate them into local communities, but rather sought early to achieve this goal in the two most important vital sectors: education and work. .
He explained – in his speech to Al Jazeera Net – that the availability of a safe and appropriate climate, and the presence of a table dedicated to Syrian businessmen in the Chamber of Commerce – who constitute 10% of the Chamber’s members – to address the difficulties and problems they may face, allowed Syrian investments to outperform their counterparts and reach first place. At the level of foreign investment in the city.
Difficulty in providing alternatives
While the return of Syrians raises concerns in some sectors of the economy, such as the textile sector and the agricultural sector, which rely heavily on Syrian labor, Turkish press sources quoted officials as being disturbed by the departure of the Syrian labor they depend on in their facilities.
The Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Turkish Textile Company “Gimkent”, Muzaffar Cevizli, said that there is difficulty in finding employees to work in this sector, and our young people do not like to work in it, and we were working to fill the gap through Syrian workers.
Because Syrians constitute about 20% of the total number of workers in the Turkish textile sector, which number 1.5 million, and although their return at the present time seems slow, Cevzli warned that the increase in the number of departing workers, in the future, will negatively affect the textile industry, and it will be difficult Then find employees in the textile, furniture and construction sectors.
In this context, Ismail Yilmaz, member of the Sector Council of the Turkish Exporters Association and head of the Ornamental Plants and Products Exporters Association, said that the agricultural sector is in a state of panic due to the departure of Syrian workers.
He explained, in a statement to the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet, that the problem is not in wages, as Syrians receive the same wages as Turkish citizens, but in the difficulty of finding alternatives to work in agriculture, especially with the decline in the interest of Turkish youth in this field.
In turn, the head of the Antalya Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Yusuf Haji Suleiman, warned that the loss of Syrian workers would negatively affect the agricultural sector, which is already suffering from difficulties in securing local workers. Pointing out that this impact may extend over the short and long term, threatening the continuity of its production.
On the other hand, Ali Chander, a member of the Board of Directors of the Federation of Chambers and Commodity Exchanges in Turkey, called for not panicking over the labor shortage resulting from the return of Syrians to their country, and said, “It is possible to address the issue in different ways, especially since their return will not be all at once, which allows the sectors economic opportunity to adapt.
In a similar situation, the head of the Gaziantep Chamber of Industry, Adnan Onverdi, ruled out – in a press interview – that the departure of Syrian refugees would lead to the collapse of the industry in the city, saying, “If the Syrians leave, the Gaziantep industry will face difficulty for a while, but it will not collapse,” pointing out that the city “It has qualified young people who can fill the void in the labor market.”
A true Syrian-Turkish partnership
On the other hand, most economic experts point out that, for the Turkish side, the Syrians have come to represent a true partnership in the economic growth process that their country is witnessing, as the number of establishments registered in the Turkish Chamber of Commerce and Industry is estimated at about 25.5 thousand establishments, and the total number of companies that contributed to About 10,332 companies were established by Syrians from 2010 until mid-2023, with a capital value of approximately $632 million.
With the exception of Istanbul, 8 Turkish states (Gaziantep, Mersin, Antakya, Sanliurfa, Kilis, Adana, Kahramanmaras, and Mardin) contain 40% of the companies owned or participated in by Syrians, and they are also considered a center for about 40% of the total investment of Syrians in Türkiye.
The newspaper “Turkey Gazitas” quoted Abdul Ghafour Asfour, head of the Association of Arab Businessmen and Industrialists Asyad, as saying that the investments of Syrian businessmen in Turkey exceeded 10 billion dollars, and they provided, alone or in partnership with the Turks, between 450 and 500 thousand job opportunities in Türkiye.
