House of Representatives | Turbulence expected for the election of the “speaker”

(Washington) The US House of Representatives votes on Friday to elect its president, the “speaker”. But faced with open opposition from elected officials from his own camp, Republican Mike Johnson is not guaranteed to retain this key position, and Congress could once again plunge into turmoil.

This swing election also serves as a test of Donald Trump’s influence in Congress, as the future president threw his support behind Mike Johnson, wishing him “good luck” Friday in a message on his Truth Social network. The future president describes the elected official from Louisiana as “a good and very capable man, who is not far from having 100% support”.

“A victory for Mike today will be a great victory for the Republican Party,” insisted Donald Trump.

But given the small majority of Republicans in the lower house in this new legislature, the current “speaker” knows that he cannot afford many defections in his camp.

“We’re going to have a margin of probably two votes,” he told Fox News on Thursday, adding that he could only “afford to lose one or two.”

However, several of them have already expressed their reluctance, or even their frank “no”, regarding the candidacy of the elected official, “speaker” for a little over a year.

“You can pull out all my nails, you can stick bamboo in them, you can start cutting off my fingers: I will not vote for Mike Johnson,” declared the most vocal of them, Republican Thomas Massie, in an interview with the conservative channel OAN.

“Full support”

After the president-elect, billionaire Elon Musk – who has become one of the most important voices in Washington since his thunderous alliance with Donald Trump – also lent his voice in favor of the current “speaker”.

“I think the same thing. You have my full support,” he responded this week on his social network X to Mike Johnson, who welcomed a message from Donald Trump in his favor.

But the support of the two influential billionaires may not be enough and a rejection of Mike Johnson’s candidacy could represent a new snub in Congress for Donald Trump.

Just before Christmas, the president-elect did not obtain the inclusion in a budgetary text of a measure on the debt ceiling which he nevertheless demanded loud and clear.

And a new failure could give a glimpse of the difficulties that the Republican would have in getting his program through Congress in the first months of his presidency.

Internal struggles

The battle for the perch which looms on Friday has the air of déjà vu, after the unprecedented dismissal a year ago of the previous president of the lower house, Kevin McCarthy.

A fall orchestrated by the Trumpist fringe in Congress, which accused Kevin McCarthy of having increased the deficit by giving in too much to the Democrats – accusations that we now find against Mike Johnson.

The dismissal gave rise to a 22-day psychodrama and exposed the internal struggles of the Republican camp to broad daylight.

Less than three weeks before his return to the White House, Donald Trump therefore wishes to avoid this type of scenario, especially since without a “speaker”, the House of Representatives would find itself unable to act, and therefore to certify his victory in the presidential election, during a session scheduled for Monday.

If Mike Johnson does not reach the majority of votes cast on Friday, the ballot will be repeated in the following hours and days, with behind-the-scenes negotiations, until the lucky one is found on the perch.