The Democratic Party Convention that begins Monday in Chicago comes at a very bad time for Republicans. And after a “catastrophic” month of campaigning for Donald Trump, the former president’s downfall is likely to continue in the coming weeks, two experts say.
Donald Trump’s campaign “went completely off the rails” after Joe Biden’s surprise withdrawal and the arrival of Kamala Harris, underlines Rafael Jacob, associate researcher at the Raoul-Dandurand Chair.
“His team let Kamala Harris redefine herself and she’s struggling to correct that. The dynamic is very difficult for Trump right now,” he said.
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As Kamala Harris formalizes her candidacy for the November election, the billionaire trails her rival by two percentage points nationally, according to a new analysis of multiple polls by the Washington Post.
Kamala Harris also slightly outpaced Donald Trump in key states like Arizona, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, according to another poll by the New York TimesThe Democrat also reportedly moved closer to her opponent in Georgia and Nevada, said Charles-Étienne Beaudry, a lecturer at the University of Ottawa’s School of Political Studies.
Here’s why things are likely to continue to get worse for Donald Trump in the coming weeks.
Donald Trump is out of control
Attacks that miss the target
Since Kamala Harris’ arrival on the scene on July 21, Donald Trump has multiplied personal attacks against her. However, this strategy has proven ineffective, insists Rafael Jacob.
“The attacks worked against Joe Biden, because he was weak and already unpopular. Except that Kamala Harris is a lesser-known candidate. She’s a more generic Democrat. She was able to rehabilitate her image and after four weeks, we see that the Trump team has completely failed,” he explains.
Joe Biden and Kamala Harris.
MEGA/WENN
A lack of discipline
The question is: why doesn’t Donald Trump change his strategy by focusing, for example, on key policies in his program?
“It’s something he could do in a theoretical world. But in reality, Donald Trump has absolutely no campaign discipline. I don’t think he’s capable of doing it,” Jacob said.
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Disjointed speeches
Charles-Étienne Beaudry, for his part, points out that Trump often gives disjointed speeches at his rallies and that he seems incapable of sticking to rational arguments.
Donald Trump in Pennsylvania on August 17.
AFP
The most recent example took place on Saturday in Pennsylvania. Donald Trump was scheduled to deliver an economic speech, but he quickly veered off topic to insult Kamala Harris. He accused her of having a communist and fascist agenda and of having “the laugh of a crazy person.”
A sentence to come
Donald Trump, who was found guilty of falsifying documents, is due to be sentenced on September 18. It could have consequences for his campaign.
“Americans have confidence in their justice system. It bothers them that a candidate is accused and I think they will express it when the sentence is pronounced,” says Mr. Beaudry, who is the author of the book Trump Radio: How He Won the First Time.
Democrats’ Honeymoon Continues
A paying agreement
Rafael Jacob and Charles-Étienne Beaudry believe that the Democratic Convention will allow Kamala Harris’ team to benefit from a new boost and continue its progression in voting intentions.
“The Democrats will seize the moment to recall the key points of their program, those which distinguish them from the Republicans, like Medicare and the defense of access to abortion,” says Mr. Beaudry.
A formidable debater
The debates scheduled for September between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris should also favor the current vice president.
“I think that right now, the Democrats are not showing Kamala Harris too much to preserve the element of surprise. As a former prosecutor, she is particularly good at debating. That could impress the undecided,” underlines the professor from the University of Ottawa.
A party looking to the future
The last two months of the campaign will also be an opportunity for the Democratic Party to convince the electorate that it is the party of the future, capable of electing the first female president in the history of the United States.
“With the slogan “We are not going back”, Kamala Harris creates a distance from the past evoked by the “Make America Great Again” Trump’s. She wants to convince that it is time to enter the 21st centurye century,” concludes Mr. Beaudry.
