Is this the result of political pressure? A little pride? Or is she really counting on an unexpected withdrawal from Donald Trump? Nikki Haley’s decision to maintain her candidacy in the Republican primaries despite her defeat in South Carolina raises a number of questions, as the race seems to be a foregone conclusion.
Saturday evening, it only took a handful of seconds for the face of the former American president to appear on all the major televisions in the country.
As he had done in Iowa, New Hampshire, the Virgin Islands and Nevada before, Donald Trump largely won the last Republican primary, once again confirming his control over the party.
The defeat is all the more cruel for Nikki Haley, her last rival, as it took place in the state of which she was governor.
In a speech on Saturday evening, the fifty-year-old, however, categorically refused to throw in the towel, assuring her supporters that she was “not giving up the fight”.
On Sunday, when all the political commentators were reporting Donald Trump’s overwhelming victory, Nikki Haley set off for Michigan, where she will hold a public meeting before new primaries on Tuesday.
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Still supported by major donors, she will then travel through Minnesota, Colorado and Utah – three states which vote on the big election day of “Super Tuesday”, March 5.
The candidate’s plea is simple: “We will not survive four more years of Trump’s chaos.” She instead promises to restore some “normalcy, urging her peers to choose “a new generation of leaders.”
Republican voters are turning a deaf ear.
According to polls, Donald Trump is expected to sweep each of the next states in play, relying on an extremely solid base of loyalists. Nikki Haley’s political prospects are, for the moment, not encouraging anywhere.
So why is she still in the race?
“His only hope is to hold on long enough for legal proceedings to undermine (Trump’s) candidacy,” political scientist Julian Zelizer told AFP.
A scenario that is not completely fantasy: the first trial of the former president begins a month to the day in New York, before a series of legal meetings planned in the capital Washington and in Florida.
The hypothesis according to which Donald Trump could be convicted before the presidential election in November is increasingly credible.
However, a number of polls show that support for the former leader’s candidacy would crumble considerably if he were found guilty in one of his trials.
Another possibility? “A health glitch” for the 77-year-old Republican, says political science professor Larry Sabato.
If the ex-businessman has not reported serious pathologies, the risk of mortality or serious accident necessarily increases over the years.
This is obviously all speculation. But even in the event of the septuagenarian’s surprise withdrawal, the designation of Nikki Haley as her party’s candidate in the presidential election would not be automatic.
Without going into too many technical details, the choice of the Republican foal could come down to party officials, many of whom hate Nikki Haley, believing that she betrayed Donald Trump by running in the 2024 election.
The former president’s supporters are much more open to the idea of his former ambassador to the UN running for office in future elections.
“She is very young, and very qualified,” greets Sandie Ellis, a Donald Trump voter, encountered by AFP in South Carolina. The 60-year-old will “absolutely” keep Nikki Haley in mind. But rather in 2028.
