DamascusSyria suffers from a lack of liquidity from the local currency in the markets, with no more pumping it and the Central Bank of Syria retains large reserves, including to fulfill the obligations that the state from salaries and so on.
In this report, Al -Jazeera Net seek the opinions of economic experts to increase the supply of the Syrian pound while ensuring its stability within the local market, avoiding inflation and losing the value of the currency.
And the situation of the exchange rate of the Syrian pound is rare, as the exchange rate decreases against the dollar in the parallel market compared to the official market (the price of the Central Bank of Syria).
The status experts attributed the most important reasons the lack of supply from the lira in exchange for the high demand, the openness of Syria externally in its international relations, and the reduction of sanctions by the United States and the European Union countries, but there is another presentation that experts stand to explain the situation.
Technical problem
The economist in economics and researcher at the Bridges Center for Studies, Khaled Trkawi, says that he does not see a problem in the availability of liquidity, but the dilemma lies in the technique of launching liquidity, meaning that the current government has a problem in the distribution and exchange process, as a result of a decrease in the expense by the state for the following reasons:
- The number of employees in the country decreased, after a large number of fictitious employees were demobilized.
- The solution of the army and security: In previous years, the largest exchange was done on the branches of security and the army, and it is the one who obtained the major share of the money that moves the markets.
- Failure to pay the salaries of retired military personnel, as well as the salaries of retirees and their families who retired in 1985 and before.
- Stop exchange on government institutions, including stopping tenders and major drainage operations, as it is noted that institutions are working with their lower energy.
Speculation
In another reason, Al -Takkawi is due to the lack of liquidity in the Syrian market, to speculation operations, and believes that the monetary bloc is gathered at the exchange offices, speculators, merchants and others who believe that the lira in their hands will increase its value, which led them to possess it.
According to Al -Tokawi, there is a group of people fearing the fluctuation of exchange rates, so they went to store what they had from the Syrian pound.
Trkawi says that there are quantities of the lira in the hands of the men of the former regime who were controlling state institutions, noting that a truck in Iraq containing 5 billion Syrian pounds (378 thousand and 787 dollars).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lyvogvzncee
Suggested solutions
Partial dollar
Syrian economist Younis Al -Karim believes that dependence on the dollar (dollar transactions) is a rapid solution for the coming period, noting that the government is in a difficult test to provide the local currency.
The cream indicates the need to use the dollar only in large economic transactions, such as huge commercial deals and in the real estate market, and stresses the importance of the state’s commitment to use the lira in all its financial transactions, in addition to limiting the sale of basic materials and goods such as bread and fuel in the lira.
It warns against expanding the use of the dollar for not causing the collapse of the Syrian pound.
Currency
The researcher Hassan Al -Marwan says in a comment to (Al -Jazeera Net), that the current government may resort to the introduction of liquidity from the lira to the markets, noting that the previous regime was agreed with an Iranian company to print a quantity of the 5,000 lira, provided that it is delivered this year .
In the context, the cream indicates the possibility of the new Syrian administration requesting Turkey to mediate with Iran to facilitate the process of obtaining the new editions of the lira.
In this context, the generous asserts that the process of printing for deficit financing is marred by many risks that may be raised from inflation, so he sees the importance that provides 3 conditions before heading towards printing:
- That confidence in the country and the printing press that will be printed and provide a high technology of printing, to prevent forgery operations.
- Commitment to the required amount of printing.
- Calculate the cost of printing, and how to pay its value.
Al -Karim believes that these conditions are not largely available, noting that the current government may have to deal with Iran.
Banking system management
Syria suffers from technical challenges in carrying out banking operations; For example, most commercial transactions are implemented traditionally, meaning that they are not implemented through electronic payment devices through the bank card, which causes people to keep large quantities of money to meet their needs, which leads to negative repercussions on the availability of liquidity in the market.
In this context, expert Khaled Trkawi indicates the need to find a technical solution by distributing salaries through programs and applications, encouraging electronic payment, activating electronic accounts, and asking every employee and merchant to open a cash account, and find mechanisms for electronic payment and encourage it, which helps reduce the use of The paper currency.
This can be done quickly by encouraging software companies and banks operating in the market to launch products that solve the crisis.
Electronic payment would reduce pressure on paper cash and facilitate official financial transactions because Syrian banks first need a restructuring to be able to deal on electronic payment in an extensive way.
Set currency trading
The deployment of licensed and unlicensed exchange companies in a lot of way for these companies to store large cash blocks of foreign exchange and the Syrian pound.
In this context, Al -Turkawi stresses the need to follow the exchange offices and tighten control over them and the financial markets to prevent speculation in the Syrian pound or convert them illegally into foreign currencies.
And it emphasizes the pursuit of embezzlement and the former regime men to find out the reason for storing the money and its places, and trying to restore them, as well as enacting laws that impose large fines on the speculators.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=akjgftc1om
Investments attract
Foreign and local investments are one of the most important solutions that contribute to moving the country’s economic wheel, creating job opportunities, and the state earns financial revenues.
Al -Turkawi stresses the importance of offering projects for investment or subscription, whether by government agencies, private bodies or trusted businessmen who have bank accounts in government banks, as the launch of these projects will bring together the Syrian pounds of people and return them to the banking system, which allows them to be used again.
