A state of economic uncertainty continues in the world, including Arab countries, but there is optimism about economic performance in 2025 compared to last year, according to the expectations of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
Last April, the IMF warned of “the increasingly prevailing state of uncertainty in light of the ongoing conflicts, the disruption of shipping traffic, and the decline in oil production,” and thus “an uneven recovery has begun to emerge, with the pace of growth varying this year across the Middle East and Central Asia.” .
Last October, the World Bank published its “Economic Observatory for the Middle East and North Africa” report, which included expectations for GDP growth for countries in the region in 2025, in addition to many other indicators.
In terms of numbers, Al Jazeera Net collected the expectations of the two international institutions and came as follows:
Saudi Arabia
Expectations of real GDP growth in the Kingdom for the year 2025 were 4.9%, compared to 1.6% in 2024, compared to a contraction of 0.8% in 2023, and compared to a growth of 7.5% in 2022.
As for the growth expectations of real GDP per capita for the year 2025, it was 3.5%, compared to 0.2% in 2024, compared to a contraction of 2.2% in 2023, and compared to a growth of 6.1% in 2022.
The World Bank’s inflation forecast was 2.3% in 2025, compared to 2.1% in 2024.
The bank added, “Saudi Arabia is suffering from a public finance deficit, and it is expected that the deficit in the Kingdom will remain stable at 2% of GDP due to the decline in oil revenues and the expansionary public finance policy.”
Qatar
Real GDP growth expectations in Qatar for 2025 reached 2.7%, compared to 2% in 2024, 1.2% in 2023, and 4.2% in 2022.
Expectations of real GDP per capita growth in 2025 were 1.2%, compared to 2.3% in 2024, compared to a contraction of 3.1% in 2023, and compared to a contraction of 4.5% in 2022.
The World Bank’s expectations for the public finance balance of GDP for the year 2025 were 4.6%, compared to 4.2% in 2024, 5.6% in 2023, and 10.4% in 2022.
The report expected inflation in 2025 to reach 1.9%, compared to 1.3% in 2024.
Egypt
The World Bank expects the real GDP growth rate for the year 2025 at 3.5%, compared to 2.5% in 2024, 3.8% in 2023, and 6.6% in 2022.
Expectations of real GDP per capita growth in 2025 were 1.9%, compared to 0.9% in 2024, 2.2% in 2023, and 4.9% in 2022.
The World Bank’s expectations for the proportion of the public finance balance to GDP in 2025 were about -7%, compared to -3.6% in 2024, -6% in 2023, and -6.2% in 2022.
The report expected inflation in 2025 to reach 17.2%, compared to 33.6% in 2024.
Morocco
Real GDP growth expectations in Morocco for 2025 came at 3.9%, compared to 2.9% in 2024, 3.4% in 2023, and 1.5% in 2022.
Expectations of real GDP per capita growth in 2025 were 2.9%, compared to 1.9% in 2024, 2.4% in 2023, and 0.5% in 2022.
The World Bank’s expectations for the proportion of public finance balance to GDP in 2025 were -3.8%, compared to -4.2% in 2024, -4.4% in 2023, and -5.4% in 2022.
The report expected inflation in 2025 to reach 2.7%, compared to 1.5% in 2024.
Algeria
Real GDP growth expectations in Algeria for the year 2025 were at 3.8%, compared to 3.1% in 2024, 4.1% in 2023, and 3.6% in 2022.
Regarding the growth expectations of real GDP per capita for the year 2025, it was at the level of 2.4%, compared to 1.6% in 2024, 2.5% in 2023, and 1.9% in 2022.
The World Bank’s expectations for the proportion of public finance balance in GDP were -9.9% for the year 2025, compared to -9.8% for the year 2024, -5.2% for the year 2023, and -3% for the year 2022.
The report expected inflation in 2025 to reach 4.9%, compared to 4% in 2024.
The UAE
Real GDP growth expectations in the UAE for the year 2025 were at 4.1%, compared to 3.3% in 2024, 3.2% in 2023, and 7.9% in 2022.
Growth expectations for real GDP per capita in 2025 were 3.4%, compared to 2.5% in 2024, 2.4% in 2023, and 7% in 2022.
The World Bank’s expectations for the proportion of public finance balance to GDP in 2025 were 4.7%, compared to 4.9% in 2024, 5.1% in 2023, and 10.8% in 2022.
The report expected inflation in 2025 to reach 2.1%, compared to 2.2% in 2024.
Jordan
Real GDP growth expectations in Jordan for the year 2025 were at 2.6%, compared to 2.4% in 2024, 2.7% in 2023, and 2.6% in 2022.
Growth expectations for real GDP per capita in 2025 were 2.1%, compared to 1.9% in 2024, 2.2% in 2023, and 1.4% in 2022.
According to the World Bank’s expectations for the proportion of the public finance balance to GDP in 2025, it is likely to be -5%, compared to -5.3% in 2024, -5.1% in 2023, and -5.6% in 2022.
The report expected inflation in 2025 to reach 2.2%, compared to 2% in 2024.
Iraq
Real GDP growth expectations in Iraq for 2025 were 4%, compared to -0.9% in 2024, -2.9% in 2023, and 4.7% in 2022.
The World Bank expects the growth of real GDP per capita in 2025 to be 1.7%, compared to a contraction of 3% in 2024, a contraction of 5.1% in 2023, and a contraction of 2.4% in 2022.
The World Bank’s expectations for the proportion of public finance balance to GDP in 2025 were -7.4%, compared to -5.3% in 2024, 0.9% in 2023, and 14.1% in 2022.
The report expected inflation in 2025 to reach 3.3%, compared to 3.7% in 2024.
