Erratic weather fueled by climate change will worsen locust outbreaks, study finds

Extreme wind and rain could lead to larger and more severe locust outbreaks, with human-caused climate change likely to intensify weather conditions and lead to higher outbreak risks, new study suggests .

The desert locust, a small-horned species found in some dry areas of North and East Africa, the Middle East and South Asia, is a migratory insect that travels in millions over travels long distances and damages crops, causing famine and food insecurity. . A one square kilometer swarm includes 80 million locusts which can consume enough food crops in one day to feed 35,000 people. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations describes it as “the world’s most destructive migratory pest.”

The study, published in Scientists progress Wednesday, said such outbreaks would be “increasingly difficult to prevent and control” in a warming climate.

Xiaogang He, study author and assistant professor at the National University of Singapore, said more frequent and severe extreme weather events due to climate change could make locust outbreaks more unpredictable.

But he hopes the study can help countries understand and address “the impacts of climate variability on locust dynamics, particularly in the context of its implications for agricultural productivity and food security” and called for a better regional and continental cooperation between countries and combat organizations to respond. quickly and put in place early warning systems.

To assess the risk of locust invasions in Africa and the Middle East and the link to climate change, scientists analyzed incidents of locust invasions from 1985 to 2020 using the Locust data tool Food and Agriculture Organization Hub. They created and used a data-driven framework to examine insect patterns to discover what can cause outbreaks over long distances.

They found that 10 countries, including Kenya, Morocco, Niger, Yemen and Pakistan, experienced the majority of locust outbreaks among 48 affected countries.

The worst locust invasion in 25 years hit East Africa in 2019 and 2020, when the insects ravaged hundreds of thousands of acres of farmland and damaged crops, trees and other vegetation, affecting food security and livelihoods.

Elfatih Abdel-Rahman, a scientist at the International Center for Insect Physiology and Ecology who was not involved in the study, said widespread locust outbreaks due to climate change would significantly threaten livelihoods in affected regions due to reduction in food production and increase in food. prices.

The researchers also found a strong link between the scale of locust outbreaks and weather and land conditions such as air temperature, precipitation, soil moisture and wind. Locusts are more likely to infest arid areas that receive sudden, extreme rainfall, and the number of insects during an infestation is strongly influenced by weather conditions.

El Niño, a recurring, natural weather phenomenon that affects climate worldwide, was also closely linked to larger and more severe locust outbreaks.

Douglas Tallamy, a professor of entomology at the University of Delaware, who was not involved in the research, said erratic weather and precipitation trigger flushes of vegetation and therefore fuel enormous growth in the locust population .

“As this variability increases, it is logical to predict that locust infestations will also increase,” Tallamy said.

The study is “yet another example of what should be a strong wake-up call that societies around the world need to come together to reduce climate change and its impacts, but also to implement strategies that response to global events such as growing threats of desertification. locusts,” said Paula Shrewsbury, a professor of entomology at the University of Maryland. Shrewsbury was not involved in the study.

The study found that particularly vulnerable areas such as Morocco and Kenya remain at high risk, but locust habitats have expanded since 1985 and are predicted to continue to grow by at least 5%. by the end of the 21st century, predictably towards western India and western Central Asia. .

He gives the example of the Rub’ al Khali, or Empty Quarter, a desert in the southern Arabian Peninsula, as a historically rare location for locust invasions, but which later became a hotspot. The desert experienced locust invasions in 2019 after uncontrolled breeding following cyclones, which filled the desert with freshwater lakes.

Major locust infestations can have enormous financial consequences. According to the World Bank, the response to a locust invasion in West Africa between 2003 and 2005 cost more than $450 million. The outbreak caused crop damage estimated at $2.5 billion, according to the statement.

Countries affected by locust outbreaks are already grappling with extreme weather events such as droughts, floods and heatwaves, and the potential escalation of locust risks in these regions could exacerbate existing challenges, said the author of the research, Xiaogang.

“Failure to address these risks could further strain food production systems and worsen the severity of global food insecurity,” he said.

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