Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has described the country’s low birth rates as an “existential threat” to Türkiye’s future.
Speaking after a cabinet meeting on Monday, Erdogan was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, “We are below the population replacement rate of 2.1.”
Erdogan pointed to the stark decline in the birth rate, which is 1.51 in 2022 compared to 2.38 in 2001, stressing the seriousness of the situation, and said, “Frankly, this is an existential threat, and a disaster for Turkey.”
According to Bloomberg, the downward population trend poses a major challenge to Erdogan’s long-term economic growth strategy, which relies heavily on a strong, young workforce.
Turkey has taken numerous legislative measures aimed at reversing this trend, including incentives for early marriage and childbearing, such as low-interest loans for newlyweds and tax exemptions for mothers who retire early after having three children, but the desired increase in birth rates has not been achieved, according to what the agency reported.
These initiatives have sparked debates about their impact on women’s participation in the workforce.
Economic repercussions
According to Bloomberg Economics, a higher birth rate could significantly boost Turkey’s potential GDP by expanding its labor force contribution over the coming decades.
However, Turkey’s low working-age population continues to hamper Turkey’s ambitions to boost economic growth through demographic means.
Erdogan reiterates his call to preserve large and extended families in Turkish society, and always emphasizes his criticism of practices such as contraception and caesarean sections, which he says reduce fertility.
Ethnic and demographic considerations
What makes the demographic landscape more complex – according to the agency – is the disparity in birth rates between different ethnic groups within Türkiye. For example, women in the country’s predominantly Kurdish southeast show an average birth rate of 2.37, which exceeds the national average.
The agency added that the birth rate among Syrian refugees in Turkey, which exceeds 5 according to research conducted by Hacitepe University in Ankara, has raised concerns among many lawmakers about the long-term demographic impact on the country.
a future vision
As Turkey grapples with these demographic challenges, the Turkish government renews its commitment from time to time – according to the agency – to reverse the trend of the declining birth rate.
Erdogan noted that “the current situation is no longer tolerable for our country,” stressing the need for renewed focus and determination to address population growth as a national priority.
