Electrification or hydrogen? Both have distinct roles in the European energy transition

A study, published in A land, is the first to more in-depth analyze the interaction of electrification and hydrogen in EU climate neutrality scenarios. The analysis shows higher electrification potential and identifies a narrower deployment range for hydrogen-based energy than previous studies.

“Previous research has shown that our electricity system can be transformed to renewable sources like wind and solar power at low cost and with low environmental impact. However, the next question is how this renewable electricity can be used to replace the use of fossil fuels in buildings, industry. and transport. Our analysis shows that direct use of electricity, for example via electric cars and heat pumps, is essential for a wide range of sectors, while converting electricity to hydrogen is only important for some applications,” says Felix Schreyer, PIK scientist and lead author of the study.

Using the energy economy model REMIND, PIK scientists investigated plausible combinations of the two strategies in the transformation pathways of the EU energy system under different scenario assumptions.

They found that in all scenarios, direct electrification is the dominant strategy for passenger cars and low-temperature heating in buildings and industry, while hydrogen and synthetic fuels produced from Electricity are mainly needed for aviation, maritime transport, the chemical industry and electricity storage. Electrification and hydrogen are therefore largely complementary, even if they compete for a small share of only around 15% of final energy. These uncertain segments include sectors such as trucking and high-temperature industrial heat.

Three cornerstones for a successful transformation

“Increasing the supply of renewable electricity and switching to electric technologies wherever possible is by far the quickest and cheapest way to eliminate carbon emissions in most sectors. We therefore expect the share of electricity in final energy to increase from 20% to 42 to 60%. ” says co-author Gunnar Luderer, head of the Energy Systems group at PIK.

Indeed, electric technologies are increasingly available and use electricity very efficiently, while converting to hydrogen and synthetic fuels and burning them results in significant energy losses.

Overall, EU electricity demand will increase according to their scenarios by 80-160% in 2050, depending on the volume of hydrogen imports and the role of electrification and hydrogen in sectors uncertain. This means that it will then be necessary to produce approximately twice as much electricity as today.

The authors also discuss the current state of EU electrification and hydrogen policy and highlight three essential cornerstones for a successful transformation: Policymaking should 1) prioritize electrification and hydrogen respectively in sectors where they are preferred in all scenarios, 2) remove barriers to the expansion of renewable energy and 3) encourage the development of hydrogen supply chains.

“Our study highlights that policymakers should respect the different sectoral roles of the two strategies: promoting electrification through electric applications for road transport and heating, while prioritizing hydrogen and synthetic fuels for applications where they are indispensable,” says PIK scientist and co-author Falko Ueckerdt. .