(Washington) Donald Trump’s initial idea was simple: redraw the electoral maps across the United States to establish the Republican majority in Congress. But ultimately, the result could well benefit the Democratic opposition come midterm elections in November 2026.
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For several months, the White House has been putting pressure on several states to redefine their electoral districts in such a way as to favor the Republicans and preserve their five seats in the House of Representatives.
The initiative, traditionally known as “gerrymandering,” appeared to be bearing fruit until Thursday, when a federal court overturned the redistricting undertaken in Texas by Republican Governor Greg Abbott, who intended to swing five seats to the right.
The Supreme Court, however, temporarily blocked the court’s decision and must now decide whether Texas can use this new map.
But even before this legal battle, the Democrats had already counterattacked and decided to redraw the maps in the states they lead to compensate for potential losses elsewhere.
“No one will emerge a winner from this electoral redistribution battle,” assures Patrick Payton, author of the forthcoming book. The Middleon how to restore Americans’ esteem for politics.
Reluctance
“It’s a zero-sum game where the executive and legislative powers both seek to manipulate the results by redrawing the electoral maps instead of governing in a way that earns the trust” of voters, believes this former mayor of Midland, a city of 130,000 inhabitants in Texas.
The White House also suffered a legal setback in Utah where the courts ordered the electoral map to be rebalanced. She also faces reluctance from other states, such as Indiana or New Hampshire, where local Republican officials refuse to engage in these partisan tactics.
Refusals which provoked the fury of Donald Trump, the president notably attacking a Republican leader from Indiana on his Truth Social network.
Meanwhile, Democrats are playing their own cards.
In California, voters approved a redistricting by referendum that should allow the left to gain five more seats. On the other side of the country, in Virginia, elected officials are pushing for a plan that would allow them to gain two or three additional seats.
“Donald Trump and Greg Abbott played with fire and burned their fingers. Democracy has won,” rejoiced the Democratic governor of California, Gavin Newsom, after the court decision initially canceling redistricting in Texas.
“Red line”
Republicans are also celebrating victories, like in North Carolina, where they could win one more seat, just like in Missouri.
But these two states are also facing legal action.
Others are dragging their feet, like in Florida, where state elected officials are due to meet on December 4 to debate the subject.
And the clock is ticking before the start of the primaries next March.
The Supreme Court is also examining a challenge in Louisiana to a major civic law, which protects the representation of ethnic minorities in Congress.
A high court repeal of the landmark law could potentially swing a dozen seats in favor of Republicans across the United States.
Enough to shake up the legislative elections of November 2026 even more? It all depends on when the decision will be made.
For political analyst Michael Ashley Schulman, the White House’s strategy of “banking on as many cards as possible in as many states as possible made sense if the courts had remained on the sidelines.”
But carrying out such redistricting “on racial grounds is a red line,” he explains. And by wanting to push their advantage too much, these leaders risk seeing their cards canceled by the courts and ultimately redrawn to their disadvantage.
