On Saturday, US President Donald Trump signed executive orders to impose customs duties by 25% on Canada and Mexico, and by 10% on China, and this represents a great escalation that will cast a shadow over the public economy, living costs and political geography in these countries.
On Sunday, Trump said that his citizens might feel “pain” because of the customs duties imposed on his main commercial partners, but he saw that securing American interests “deserves this price.”
Trump attributed these American interests in the merits of these fees to address several issues that the United States suffers from, such as irregular migration, the smuggling of Fintanel and commercial deficit.
On the other hand, the government of Mexico and Canada announced that they will take anti -American fees, and at the same time they will reassure American concerns about borders and trade.
The trade balance
The reality of the trade balance between the United States and the three countries may indicate the nature of the trade exchange between them, and reflects the importance of the American president’s speed to implement the electoral promises he made on himself before assuming the presidency just about two weeks ago.
The writer and researcher in economic affairs, Abdel Hafez Al -Sawy, says that America aims to reduce the trade deficit with Canada, Mexico and China, which is one of the largest commercial partners of the United States, as Mexico comes in the forefront with a commercial exchange size of $ 775 billion, with a commercial difference In its favor, it is 155 billion dollars, then Canada with a trade surplus of $ 55 billion, while China comes with a surplus of more than 270 billion dollars.
As for the editor of the economic affairs at Al -Jazeera Net, Mohamed Afzaz, he sees that the three countries combined 40% of trade with the United States, adding that Trump stated on more than one occasion that he is annoyed by trade relations between him and other parties as a result of the trade deficit that America suffers from.
“The genie has come out of the bottle.” Says Daniel Mulani, former assistant assistant representative of the United States in Europe and the Middle East.
In a report of the Atlantic Council in Washington, Mullani added that the United States with this measure expressed an unimaginable line, noting that the previous customs definitions were mostly in response to the harmful impact of a group of unfair practices and high imports or balance of payment issues, but the current procedures pave the way for the road For more definitions that are in response to a number of non -commercial priorities.
Real goal
Economists believe that international trade cannot be separated from other political and security dimensions that affect each other, and then the new customs tariff that Trump decided not to be a purely commercial exclusion, but there are other dimensions behind this decision.
This is the statement of the researcher at the Atlantic Council, Barbara C Matthews, said that “Trump confirmed that the United States is facing a serious national emergency with China’s exploitation of the free trade zone established by the United States, Mexico and Canada Agreement.”
Matthews added – in the report of the Atlantic Council – that the customs definition policy indicates that the closest US business partners turns a blind eye to the fentian trade.
In an interview with Al -Jazeera Net – Abdel -Hafez Al -Sawy says that Trump’s goal in the American market appears to be an economic nature, but he hides behind political goals.
He pointed out that we are now facing a new stage in American commercial policy; Since 1995, the United States has been one of the largest supporters of global trade liberalization, and has helped establish the World Trade Organization, and today emerging and advanced countries are the ones that defend freedom of trade, while America is heading towards trade protection policies.
As for the editor of economic affairs in Al -Jazeera Net, it is a number of goals, including:
- Preventing the flow of irregular migrants from the three countries.
- Preventing the smuggling of drugs that threaten the American people.
- National security related to the extended borders between the United States and Canada and Mexico.
China is only 10%
Trump’s decision to impose customs duties by 25% on America’s traditional allies (Canada and Mexico) and only 10% on its largest economic competitor (China) raises a question: Why is this decline in dealing with China?
The Director of the Geo Economics Josh Lipsky Center attributes this to two things:
- The first of them: inflation. Trump knows that his decisions on Canada and Mexico will leave an effect that American consumers will not bear except for a limited price of price pressures.
- Second: Speaking, Mexico and Canada depend on the United States much more than the United States depends on them in trade exchange, and this does not apply to the less of the economy of China less dependent on trade, and only 15% of China’s trade goes to America, compared to 80% of neighbors’ exports Washington.
Afzaz believes that the limited fees towards China is due to estimates that indicate that the Chinese economy will replace the United States as the largest global economy in 2030, and then Washington seeks to a kind of gradual relations between them in the face of the great trade deficit between the two parties in favor of China, and it reaches more than 270 billion dollars, especially since the volume of trade between the United States and China is more than 700 billion dollars per year.
He added that there is another factor that is China’s control of rare minerals and semi -conductors and a number of strategic sectors that the United States prepares related to national and strategic security, and therefore Washington will need more negotiation with China, which in turn will not be subject to American dictates, and it will be difficult for Trump and any president American in the future.
The ability to confront
Trump’s success in implementing this commercial policy is subject to the position of the three countries on the new fees and its reaction to that, especially since some of them have already applied similar fees to American imports.
Therefore, Al -Sawy says that any economic action that results in winners and losers. On the internal level, the American consumer will suffer from high prices due to customs duties on imported goods, which leads to increased inflation and living costs.
On the international level, the exporters in these three countries will be the most affected by these measures, and the shipping and insurance companies that will witness a decline in their business will be affected, as well as the banks that fund exports to the United States will be affected, as the funding opportunities will decrease significantly.
Maria Bouzmoski, director of influence and operations at the Adrian Archt Center, believes that Mexican exports may decrease by more than 10%, and the gross domestic product may reach 4%.
She added – in a report by the Atlantic Council – that the American customs duties will quickly lead to economic growth and ensure the security chain security, which was a direct result of the United States, Mexico and Canada agreement, and because of this step, China has become stronger, and Mexico and the United States are weaker.
