In what he called “Liberation Day”, US President Donald Trump announced on April 2 a radical change in American commercial policy, by imposing a new customs duties equation that exceeded the formula that Washington previously adopted as a member of the World Trade Organization, which is based on imposing the same customs tariff rate on all its commercial partners, regardless of the rates followed by them.
The new American formula determines the American customs recognition of the imports of any country, equivalent to the American trade deficit with that country divided by its imports, or 10%, whichever is higher, which caused an earthquake that shook global financial markets.
An analysis issued by “Renissance Capital Africa”, an investment institution that is active in emerging and border economies, shows that the United States is not an important export market for the vast majority of African countries, compared to countries like Canada and Mexico, which imports the United States from either of them within 24 hours more than it imports annually from about 40 African countries.
However, the image of the effects of the new identification will not be completed except when its systems in a context that includes Trump’s decision to freeze international international aid, as well as the expected bounces of this new tariff on the global economy such as its shrinkage indicators and the possibility of recession that cast dark shadows on the most vulnerable economies, foremost of which is the countries of the continent.
Lisuto at the top of the list
According to the American “Sima Four” news website, Lesoto was among the countries most affected by the “Trump Hurricane”, as the United States imposed customs definitions by 50%, which made it ranked second after China on the list of countries most affected by US customs policy.
The situation is more difficult for this small country in the south of the African continent that it suffers from high rates of HIV infection (AIDS), which exacerbated after a previous decision by the Trump administration to freeze American international aid, which posed a major threat to the ability of Lesuto to continue to combat this deadly epidemic and provide health support to its citizens.
Lesuto’s exports to the United States reached about 10% of its gross domestic product in 2024, including textiles, auto parts, and diamonds, with a total exports of $ 237 million in 2024, however, the Lesoto Cuff in the Balance of Trade exchange greatly suggests the limitations of its imports from the United States, which prompted Washington to target these customs measures.
A width in the influence
Many African countries are expected to be affected by the new customs definitions announced by Washington, including 47%, Mauritius, by 40%, Botswana by 37%, and Angola by 32%. The list also includes Libya by 31%, Algeria and South Africa by 30%, Sao Tommy and Brenysibi by 29%, Tunisia by 28%, Cote d’Ivoire and Namibia by 21%, Zimbabwe with 18%, Zambia and Malawi by 17%, Mozambique by 16%, Nigeria by 14%, Equatorial Guinea and Chad by 13%, Democratic Republic of the Congo and Cameroon by 11%.
While a 10% uniform tariff was imposed on the following countries: Egypt, Morocco, Kenya, Tanzania, Senegal, Uganda, Ethiopia, Ghana, Gabon, Togo, the Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Mali, Issawini (Swaziland), Liberia, South Sudan, Comoros, Cape Verde, Burundi, Mauritania, Gambia, Gambia, the Republic of Africa Central, Eritrea, Guinea Bissau.
How does the increase in customs tariff affect African economies?
A comment issued by the Center for Strategic and International Studies “CSIS”, an American research institution, indicates that African countries will be relatively affected by Trump customs duties compared to other countries in the world, as a result of the potential decrease in demand by the United States, which means reducing production and loss of jobs.
Besides the above, the comment confirms that the increase in American fees will lead to anti -protective measures by other economic powers to maintain free trade within their areas, which will reduce exports and thus global economic growth. In addition to the increase in customs tariffs will increase the cost of goods, weaken consumer demand and slow global economic growth, as commodity prices are expected to rise in African markets in the coming months, as happened in the wake of the Kofid-19.
According to the New York Times, if inflation pushes central banks to raise interest rates, African countries burdened with debt will face double difficulties, as their loan installments, most of which are priced in dollars, will increase, while their ability to win foreign exchange through exports will be affected.
These inflationary pressures are major threats to the stability of the macroeconomic economy, especially in countries such as Ghana and Zambia, which already face cases of failure to pay their debts. The successive effects of increasing customs duties may lead to high interest rates, low currency value, and public spending declining on basic services such as health and infrastructure.
Damaged sectors
In this context, some African economies face serious challenges due to their dependence on specific sectors that are negatively affected by this increase in definitions. For example, South Africa exports approximately 10% of its vehicles to the United States, and the auto industry is expected to suffer from job loss as a direct result of increasing commercial barriers.
Negative repercussions are not limited to the industrial sector alone, as agricultural exports, in turn, are also risks, and the South African citrus farmers Association has warned that new customs duties may threaten about 35 thousand functions related to citrus fruits in the country.
Many observers indicate that many African countries’ dependence on the export of raw goods will exacerbate the potential impacts of new American policies, given that they will be vulnerable to the trap of fluctuations in the price of these materials resulting from market turmoil and global economic contraction.
Agwa Law in the wind
The United States application puts an increase in customs definitions of the law of growth and opportunities in Africa (Agua) in a strong wind, a preferential trade program that grants sub -Saharan African countries to participate in the possibility of access to American markets without customs duties. Despite the discussions raised by the program on the extent of African countries benefiting from it, it has strengthened manufacturing and created hundreds of thousands of job opportunities in a number of productive sectors.
In 2023, the United States’ imports, under the Agwa Act of 9.7 billion dollars, exceeded a decrease of about one and a half billion dollars from the previous year, and these imports were dominated by crude oil worth $ 4.2 billion, and the clothing trade by about 1.1 billion dollars, and agricultural products exceeded 900 million dollars. South Africa came at the head of the exporting countries ($ 14 billion), Nigeria (5.7 billion dollars), Ghana ($ 1.7 billion), Angola ($ 1.2 billion), and Cote d’Ivoire (948 million dollars), among 32 countries benefiting from this program in 2023.
In September 2025, Agua’s law, which is described as the leading American initiative to build its relations with the African continent, will end. While doubts about its renewal by Congress in that month intensify, the recent Trump administration’s procedures have put it in a minefield that practically coordinated the privileges provided by the program, which will lead to deep damage affecting hundreds of thousands of workers in sectors that export to the United States its spine.
And what next, Africa?
A new reality imposed by the policies of US President Donald Trump on the economies of the exhausted continent, which puts it in front of a serious test of its ability to overcome the current challenge and formulate different balances that benefit Africa and its peoples.
In this context, a number of researchers propose in a comment published by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, based in Washington, a set of steps that will contribute to developing an African response based on the collective crowd of a coordinated continental response through the African Union, to agree on a joint work path to negotiate with the United States in a way that leads to preserving the national interests of the two parties.
The comment indicates the need for institutions and ministries to take a set of steps, including accelerating the internal implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Zone (AFCTAA), especially with the division of the global trade system to regional commercial blocs, which will go beyond the strengthening of African -African trade to also reduce weaknesses in foreign markets, and improve economic stability throughout the continent.
On the external level, the pursuit of export markets has become an urgent necessity, while paying attention to enhancing cooperation with the such as the Brexes, which since 2022 constituted nearly 23% of the total exports of Africa, in addition to urging the European Union and smaller markets, such as the United Kingdom, to enhance its preferred agreements with the continent, including fully recognition of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement.
Regarding the Agua Law, many observers believe that its undermining, along with the closure of the American Agency for International Development, will cause deep damage to the foundations of American participation with the countries of the continent, and the presence of Washington’s competitors, such as China, will expand in Africa. On the other hand, it will allow the construction of a different approach to cooperation with the United States, which increases the chances of the continent’s economies more comprehensive and exceeds its current faults.
