Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the presidential election has muddied the waters of Donald Trump’s campaign. According to many experts and sources close to Mr. Trump, he would have preferred his Democratic rival to stay in the race, as he was struggling in the polls and whose failing health contrasted with the former Republican president’s new image as a miracle worker.
“Republicans are always ready to stand up to the opposition,” says Charles-Philippe David, professor of political science and founder of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair in Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at UQAM. “But the situation has just changed. We are entering uncharted territory.”
However, everything indicates that Kamala Harris will be nominated by the Democratic Party to replace Joe Biden. The latter first announced on Sunday evening that he would support the candidacy of his vice president. Shortly afterwards, the main interested party declared in a press release that she intended to “win the nomination” of the Democrats and “beat Trump”.
His candidacy could therefore be made official in the coming weeks, even before the Democratic convention, which is scheduled to take place from August 19 to 22 in Chicago. “The Democrats have everything to gain from electing him as soon as possible, in order to avoid an open convention,” explains Mr. David. This would contrast with the image of unity that emerged from the Republican convention last week.
No surprises either
Since Joe Biden’s dismal performance in the June 27 debate, Mr. Trump and his team had measured out their criticism of the president, hoping that he would stay in the race until the party officially nominated him and that it would be too late to replace him without facing major legal hurdles.
Although Mr. Biden’s announcement put Republicans on high alert, they had already anticipated such a turnaround. On Saturday, the New York Times revealed that Mr Trump’s campaign had prepared ads focusing on Mrme Harris, both as vice president and as California’s top attorney general, according to two inside sources.
“Donald Trump is not completely taken by surprise,” says Charles-Philippe David. “That said, he knew he was going to beat Joe Biden, the polls were behind him. But does he have the same confidence in being able to beat Kamala Harris? Certainly not, but we must not think that he is impressionable either.”
Immigration
The Republican candidate is expected to continue to focus on immigration in the coming weeks, especially since the vice president has been the Biden administration’s spokesperson on the issue.
On Sunday night, Mr. Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr., attacked her over the issue on X. “She was put in charge of policing the border, and we saw the worst invasion of illegal (immigrants) in our history,” he said.
Kamala Harris owns the entire leftwing policy record of Joe Biden. The only difference is that she is even more liberal and less competent than Joe, which is really saying something. She was put in charge of the border and we saw the worst invasion of illegals in our history!!!
— Donald Trump Jr. (@DonaldJTrumpJr) July 21, 2024
“On this matter, Mr.me Harris has not dazzled with her proposals and her talent, says Charles-Philippe David. She will have a lot of work to do to defend her record. On the other hand, it is one of Donald Trump’s main campaign themes. He will return to the charge on this subject and continue to portray Democrats as radicals responsible for all the ills of American society.
Abortion and Civil Rights
Kamala Harris could, however, give Donald Trump a hard time when it comes to abortion rights and civil rights, observes the political scientist.
“She has already been particularly eloquent and combative on the issue of abortion,” he said. “If, in addition, she names a female running mate, like Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, and for the first time two women run together, the debates on the subject could turn in their favor.”
Moreover, in the current context where the voting intentions of African-Americans, Latin Americans and young people, traditionally Democrats, are gradually sliding into the opposing camp, M’s Jamaican and Indian originsme Harris could play for her, the professor said.
“Donald Trump may have more work to do to retain these voters,” David said. “There are still uncertainties, and Kamala Harris has not been heard enough so far. She may still not be elected by her party. And while Democrats will continue to champion Biden’s proudly centrist record, it remains to be seen how much further left the party might move, and how that would in turn influence Republican rhetoric.”
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