Donald Trump’s greatest strength since his arrival on the political scene is to be himself and to do as he pleases.
It is very early in the campaign, but now that he has established himself among the Republicans, he is slow to modify his strategy in anticipation of a national campaign during which he cannot count only on his loyal supporters.
If he persists, he could be his own worst enemy. The defeat in 2020 and the disappointing results of the 2018 and 2022 midterm elections should serve as lessons.
The limits of division
In American politics, you rarely find a candidate who can win without compromise. There are a few tidal waves like those of the Republican candidates for the elections of 1980, 1984 and 1988, but this is the exception, not the rule.
For example, Joe Biden knows that he cannot sacrifice the vote of young people, women and most minorities. His team is also worried about seeing Spanish speakers and young people (a recent trend) joining the ranks of the opposing camp.
For his part, Donald Trump should be worried about the results of the Republican primaries. Even after announcing her withdrawal from the race, Nikki Haley still garners a good share of support.
The 2024 race will be played out in five or six states, and both candidates will need all their “changes” to return to the White House. In Trump’s case, moderate Republicans and independents should be his primary focus.
Most worrying stat for Republicans: There are more people willing to turn out to vote against Trump than there are for Biden. The latter has received messages from voters who could shun him because of his policy towards Israel, but the effects would be less dramatic than for his opponent.
Sharing the vote with other candidates for the primaries
Associated Press poll reported by the Axios website
His strategists are scratching their heads
That Donald Trump refuses to offer another version of himself than the one he has presented to us since 2016 is one thing, but what about the people who work for him? What about the Republican Party, which has always been a formidable get-out-the-vote machine?
Let’s make no mistake. Whether we agree with their ideas or not, several strategists and pollsters in the Trump clan are solid and well organized. This time, however, the results are slow to be felt.
It is likely that the upheavals and personnel movements associated with the candidate’s recent stranglehold on his party partially explain the vagueness surrounding his game plan, but even if money starts flowing in again at a steady pace, Donald Trump must expand its electorate.
His announcement today on the issue of abortion is perhaps a first step in that direction.
