Even though he won the popular vote by seven million votes in 2020, Joe Biden owes his victory to starving margins in several swing states.
Donald Trump can hope to take back several of these states because the outgoing president’s coalition of voters is crumbling. If progressives and young people threaten to stay home, members of the black and Spanish-speaking communities turn to the Republican Party.
A look back at 2020 results
When we analyze the results of the 2020 election, we quickly see that Joe Biden will have his work cut out for him to obtain a second term. We already know that Donald Trump enjoyed a clear advantage among the white electorate aged 50 and over.
White voters made up 69% of all voters in 2020. There is no indication of major changes in these statistics for 2024.
- Listen to the American political column with Professor Luc Laliberté via QUB :
If Biden beat Trump, it was in large part because of his performance among non-whites. They represented four in ten voters for Democrats and a low 0.5 in ten voters for Republicans.
A new deal
Recent polls New York Times/Siena College report that Trump enjoys a lead in five of six swing states. We also observe a significant shift in the vote of blacks and Spanish speakers.
The Times/Siena polls only confirm a strong trend observed for several months. Recently, a CNBC poll noted that Biden is now favored by only 57% of non-whites, compared to 71% in 2020.
Why do they choose Trump?
How can we explain that we prefer to turn to a candidate who has been criticized for comments deemed racist? The phenomenon is multifactorial, but I note at least two main reasons.
One of the most important lies in the Democratic strategy. Whether we approach the black community or the Spanish speakers, we have used the same means for a long time, without regard to changes in behavior or priorities within these groups.
The only racial card played from the angle of recognition of civil rights is no longer enough. Those who do not define themselves solely by the color of their skin migrate more easily to the GOP. Democrats are disappointing and offering too few options to these voters.
The other determining factor is not the prerogative of minorities: the perception of Joe Biden’s economic record. Just like among the white electorate, there is a belief that a Trump presidency would be better for our wallets.
The challenge is significant in the next five months for Joe Biden: retaining the minority vote which is still generally favorable to him, while modifying his approach to plug the leak.
Photo of the week
Screenshot, AI-generated image
Use of artificial intelligence (hyperfaking) to produce a montage of Trump surrounded by members of the black community.
Number of the week
13
No less than thirteen political allies of Donald Trump showed up in New York to support him during his trial. Among them were presumptive vice-presidential candidates like Ohio Senator JD Vance, defeated candidate for the Republican nomination Vivek Ramaswamy and North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum.
The quote of the week
“Has anyone ever watched the Silence of the Lambs. With the late Hannibal Lecter? He’s a wonderful man. (…) Do you remember the last scene? “I’m going to have a friend over for dinner soon.” (…) Congratulations!”
Donald Trump made the astonishing statement during a political rally in Wildwood, New Jersey last weekend. Sarcastic or not, the fact that a presidential candidate praises the famous killer played by Anthony Hopkins has shaken many people.
