Even though support is growing for Democrat Kamala Harris, it’s no wonder the race is tight and there will be intense suspense on the evening of November 5.
Considering recent electoral cycles, we cannot exclude the possibility of a more or less long delay between the time of voting and the confirmation of the results.
Historical references
At 19e century, it was not uncommon for several days or weeks to pass before a winner was announced, but in the 20e and 21e centuries, the phenomenon is less frequent.
Two elections stood out in this regard: those of 1916 and 2000.
In 1916, Democrat Woodrow Wilson faced Republican Charles Evans Hughes. The latter was initially considered the winner, but the vote counting took two weeks, at the end of which the Democrat won a second term.
Many of you probably remember the race between Vice President Al Gore and George W. Bush in 2000. The media bungled a few times on election night, and after a legal saga, Gore didn’t concede victory until 35 days after the vote.
Particularly competitive pivot states
Once again, all eyes will be on the swing states. Many pollsters and analysts believe the contest will be even closer than in 2020.
In that election, the vote counting took a particularly long time, opening the door to doubts and disinformation. The Republicans subsequently took numerous legal actions, suffering failure after failure.
There have been few major changes in the way votes are counted, and while Michigan, Georgia and Nevada have adopted measures to speed up the counting of votes, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania have not moved in this direction.
This means that we could see the same scenario as in 2020, where it seems that Trump is leading in the early evening, while the trend gradually reverses when we count votes by mail or those sent in advance.
An armada of lawyers and a staggering number of lawsuits
If you still need convincing that the vote counting might be painful, consider the fact that Kamala Harris recently mentioned that her legal team would be ten times larger than Biden’s in 2020.
Or note that Republicans have already filed over a hundred lawsuits to challenge certain procedures. It is noted that 50% of Republican voters would not be prepared to accept a defeat.
Democracy is based on trust, on the acceptance of results. Faced with the possibility of another long and complex management of results, what will remain of this trust after the 2025 election?
