Kyiv/Moscow- After a relative stop that lasted for about two months, Ukraine returned on January 24 to bomb the Russian depth with its drones, mainly focused on oil and gas refining stores, tubes, stations and refineries.
What is remarkable and new in this shelling is that it has become almost daily and in record numbers of marches that often exceed 100, according to the Russians, and the extent of some of them reached about 1700 km in the Russian depth, which did not happen before.
The Ukrainian Goals Bank was 7 Russian facilities within 10 days, most notably in Volgograd, Nijjorsk, Razan, Saratov, Strakhan, Brandsk and Tafir, in addition to the Republic of Tatarstan.
What is the goal of Ukraine?
The Ukrainians are not different from their country’s direct goal of focusing on bombing on Russian oil and gas installations, because this sector constitutes the nerve of Russia’s economy and their military vehicle in the war, which is close to the end of its third year.
October 202% of Russia’s budget, and Ukrainian strikes threaten this vital sector, because it actually lost about 9-20% of production and export capabilities. “
He added in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net that leading companies such as “Gazprom” have become threatened at the local and global levels.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zsewekwmcg
“Every Ukrainian blow cost Russia direct losses between 50-100 million dollars, but the indirect losses are estimated at a minimum of hundreds Targeting the oil pumping station in Andrabol with the province of Tafir. “
Weaknesses
It seems that the Ukrainians are satisfied with the impact of these strikes on the fronts of their war with the Russians, as they talk about a “retreat” in the momentum of Russian attacks on the fronts, and large “breakthroughs” inside the territory of Russia.
According to the “Deep State” of the war maps, Russian offensive operations have clearly declined in the past days, after reaching their peak in the second half of last December.
The site pointed to the 44% intensity of the attacks in the Boucrovsk axis in the Donetsk province (the heat of the fighting currently), by 13% on the fronts of the Russian Corsec Province, and 10% on the fronts of Lyman in Logansk Province.
“Our weakness is the infrastructure, and this is slowly treating it, whenever we get more air defenses,” says Valery Romano, a researcher at NOA University.
“The Russian economy can stand up to the closure of a number of stations and refineries, and turn towards relying on the other far in Moscow, Yaroslavel and others. But the recent Ukrainian strikes have demonstrated, in return, that the weakness of the Russians does not lie only in the weight of their oil and gas sector, But also in their inability to protect their lands and this sector, because our marches were able to successfully penetrate the atmosphere of 13 Russian provinces.
War bill is increasing
The Ukrainians compare what is happening today and what happened in the last years of the Soviet era, and they talk about the possibility of repeating the scenario, and forcing Russia to “fair negotiations.”
“The Soviets collapsed with the blockade of the oil and gas sector after they occupied Afghanistan. Little by little today, the Kremlin and the general general realize that they spend millions or even billions of dollars in order to seize every square kilometer inside Ukraine, and that this price has doubled times from what it was in a year 2022 “.
He adds, “The Russians do not care about human life, and even if they lose 500 people for every square kilometer, one of the occupied territories, this will not stop them until the oil and gas pump stopped, or Ukraine stopped it systematically as it does, to force Moscow to accept more fair negotiations.” He said.
Targeting oil installations
The number of attacks launched by Ukrainian drones increased on Russian oil refineries sharply in January, the highest number of any month in the past year.
The authorities and companies in Russia are rarely commented on the consequences of Ukrainian attacks on their industrial facilities and the country’s economy. Likewise, the Russian government’s government classification data and exports of Russian crude oil exports within the confidential category make it difficult to assess the impact of Ukrainian attacks.
Although some analyzes inside Russia say that recent attacks may lead to the closure of some oil refineries and fuel shortages in Russian stations, some experts believe that the situation at the present time is under the control of the Russian authorities.
Economic Affairs Analyst Igor Bilsky told Al Jazeera Net that the broader campaign launched by Ukraine to target Russian oil infrastructure is linked to changing the situation in global markets.
He adds that the United States asked Ukraine last March to stop the attacks on Russian energy supplies, fearing that this would lead to high global oil prices.
But now, with the expectations of the International Energy Agency that the market may face a surplus of one million barrels per day this year, Washington on this background imposed the most severe sanctions on the Russian oil and gas industry, as a large part of the so -called Russian “shadow” fleet under the restrictions like Ggbrom occurred Naft and Surgutinvity.
However, the spokesman confirms that the Russian economy and the oil industry can easily withstand in the face of closing many refineries for a few weeks due to the availability of the possibility of covering the fuel deficit caused by its damage through stations in the cities of Camosko, Yaroslavl and Castovo in the Nizhny Novgorod Province.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syun3howl2w
Resilience
For his part, an expert at the Supreme Institute of Economics, Vladimir Olichinko, is asserted by a surplus to meet the needs of the local market even when a closing of an oil refiner.
But he points out that the problem is in the logistical services chains that are exposed to turmoil and causes the problem of restructuring of oil products to compensate for the defect results from the attacks, a question not only directed to oil workers, but to workers in logistical services, railway and pipelines system.
On the other hand, the spokesman notes that the drones often achieve their targets, but the final damage to such attacks is not causing severe material damage, for example, or the complexity of the supply of Russian forces with fuel on the Ukrainian front, but rather created a state of lack Stability and uncertainty in public opinion, which is a matter of no less important, according to his opinion.
He continues that the matter now is related to attacks on the vital oil industry in Russia as part of a broader Ukrainian strategy for Moscow’s deprivation of its main source of income, and therefore the response must be “painful” for Kiev so that it thinks 100 times before directing similar strikes on Russian energy facilities.
Olichinko says President Trump, who earlier promised to end the war on the first day of his office clearly failed to fulfill this promise, and it seems that the question is now if US President Donald Trump will maintain or tighten sanctions in the future.
