Donald Trump’s promised deportation of millions of “illegal” immigrants would be one of the most ruinous policies in US history.
For Trump, this issue is a question of political survival, if not survival at all.
It was by turning to a graph illustrating irregular migration that he escaped death on July 13. This issue that he has been hammering home since 2015 continues to excite his base, as during the Republican convention where thousands of supporters chanted “Mass deportation now!»
All experts agree that this policy would be unworkable and ruinous, but Trump is adamant about it. Why?
An unrealizable whim
The number of illegal immigrants in the United States is estimated at around 11 million, a figure that Trump does not hesitate to falsely inflate to almost double. His goal: all out!
From a logistical standpoint, it would be a nightmare. Hundreds of thousands of additional federal agents would have to be assigned to the task of identifying, tracking down, and apprehending these millions of individuals, not to mention the astronomical costs of lawyers, prosecutors, and judges, because, despite Trump’s opinion, even undocumented immigrants have constitutional rights.
Add to this the construction and operation of countless detention camps for millions of individuals awaiting deportation and you conclude that this is pure fantasy.
Ruinous consequences
Even in the extraordinarily unlikely event that it could be implemented, what would be the consequences of such a policy?
A study published in October 2023 in the renowned Journal of Labor Economics estimates that for every million undocumented workers deported, 88,000 native-born jobs would be lost. Not only would the U.S. economy lose the contributions of the millions of deported migrants, but the idea that they would all be replaced by citizens is completely ludicrous.
The resulting increase in labor costs and inflation would be astronomical, and the losses would be enormous for the American economy (and ours, of course).
If you can find me a credible study that shows that deporting over 10 million illegal immigrants would be economically beneficial to the United States, I’ll buy you a gourmet dinner at the best American restaurant you can find that doesn’t employ any of these immigrants. Good luck finding the study, and more importantly, the restaurant.
For what?
If this policy were as ruinous as it was unworkable, why is Trump making it a pillar of his program?
Like his famous wall along the entire southern border, which has no chance of being completed, this promise is above all a symbol of rallying an electorate attracted by simplistic solutions that target easily defenseless scapegoats.
As when the Trump administration actively encouraged border agents to separate families to deter migrants, it is the unreal cruelty of such a policy that makes it attractive to this new populist right that identifies with fabulists like Trump or Hulk Hogan.
Trump apologists will tell me that he is talking nonsense and should therefore not be taken literally. Perhaps, but if a central pillar of his political program is so utterly insane, what should we think of the rest?
