(New York) Eight months before the midterm elections, the President of the United States could boast of having overthrown one of the worst tyrants on earth. But this feat of arms did not prevent his party from losing both houses of the American Congress during the November election. In his memorable words, the electorate had inflicted on him a “ thumping », a crushing defeat.
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There is no shortage of differences between the war in Iraq which allowed George W. Bush to bring down dictator Saddam Hussein and that in Iran which gave Donald Trump the opportunity to claim responsibility for the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. (“I got him before he got me,” he told ABC reporter Jonathan Karl.)
Still: 20 years later, the Iraq War and the 2006 elections represent an instructive point of reference. They also constitute a warning to President Trump, who sometimes seems insensitive to the consequences of his actions.
PHOTO LUKE FRAZZA, AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE ARCHIVES
US President George W. Bush in 2003
A trait he demonstrated again last week during an interview with the magazine Time.
Asked whether Americans should fear possible retaliation at home following U.S. strikes on Iran, Mr. Trump replied: “I guess so. »
And added: “When we wage war, some people die. »
Historical unpopularity
The United States marked the third anniversary of the invasion of Iraq on March 19, 2006. In the days leading up to this date, several polls revealed that the majority of Americans no longer believed in the mission that the Bush administration had given itself in this country.
According to a study by Gallup, 60% of Americans thought the invasion of Iraq was not worth it. Three years earlier, 68% of them thought the opposite.
Remarkably, support for the Iran war after less than a week – 38%, according to the average of polls compiled by data guru Elliot Morris from February 28 to March 4 – was virtually identical to support for the Iraq war after three years – 37%, according to Gallup.
The unpopularity of Operation “Epic Fury” has no precedent in the contemporary era.
As recently noted by New York Timesall American military interventions since World War II have initially enjoyed the support of a majority or a plurality of the public, from the Korean War to the Vietnam War to the Kosovo War to the Afghanistan War.
Donald Trump should be worried about this. Because support for wars tends to fall.
Rising prices
But Nicolás Maduro’s killer is not worried.
“I think the polls are very good, but I don’t care about the polls. I must do what is right. This should have been done a long time ago,” he told the New York Post last week.
This statement illustrates the propensity of 47e president to deny facts that displease him. It also reveals his conviction of being the only one to have had the courage to accomplish what his predecessors did not dare to do, from Venezuela to Iran and soon passing through Cuba, which is in its “last moments”, he said on Saturday.
But his political advisors are worried. They not only follow the curve of opinion polls, but also the evolution of the average price of a gallon of gasoline.
Prices rose 16% during the first eight days of the war, according to the American Automobile Association.
This is just one of the consequences of the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, which is also driving up the prices of nitrogen fertilizers needed by American farmers. All this at a time when these same White House advisers would like the president to defend his efforts to combat the rising cost of living, an issue likely to be decisive in November.
A dominant concern
In March 2006, George W. Bush didn’t have to worry about the price of a gallon of gasoline, which had been falling for some time. But he could not forget his war in Iraq, which then dominated voters’ concerns, far ahead of terrorism, the economy, health and immigration, according to a poll carried out by the Pew Research Center.
Result: on November 7, 2006, the Republican president’s party would lose 33 seats in the House of Representatives and 6 in the Senate. The next day, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld resigned. A month before the invasion of Iraq, he declared, regarding the duration of the American intervention: “It could last six days, six weeks. I doubt it will last six months. »
Donald Trump could try to escape the fate of George W. Bush by claiming victory after another week or two of American strikes. It could even avoid being associated with another major strategic error in the Middle East, depending on how the situation in Iran develops.
But if things come to a head and his party suffers defeat in the midterm elections, it would be surprising if he accepted some of the blame, as George W. Bush did in 2006.
“As leader of the Republican Party, I bear a large part of the responsibility,” said the 43e president.
