The return of Donald Trump to the White House looked promising for the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf. During his first year, the president struck deals with the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, rekindling a strained relationship with the kingdom. But since the start of the Israeli-American strikes in Iran, the Gulf States have suffered the full brunt of the responses. The war could shake up relations between these countries and the United States.
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“I think now the Gulf countries see themselves as trapped in a war that they did not want and that they desperately tried to avoid,” said Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, a Middle East researcher at the Baker Institute for Public Policy in Houston.
At least a dozen civilians have been killed in Gulf countries since the start of the war, according to the New York Times. Particularly affected, the United Arab Emirates said it had intercepted some 1,500 Iranian drones and missiles in less than two weeks. Their important airport, in Dubai, was targeted. Iranian drones also damaged Kuwait’s drone on Thursday. Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Oman and Qatar – host of the most important American military base in the region – have also suffered the wrath of Iran.
These countries have refused to play an offensive role for the moment.
The responses, although predicted by experts in the region, were the “biggest surprise” of the conflict, said the American president.
Iran increases pressure
By targeting not only American bases installed in these countries, but also civilian infrastructure, Iran is increasing pressure on these partners of the United States and on the global economy. But can the strategy work with Trump, vague about American objectives and in a hurry to declare victory?
“To a large extent, American decisions regarding this war, and in particular those of President Trump, will be guided more by domestic political considerations than by regional realities,” notes Gregory Gause, associate researcher at the Middle East Institute in Washington. Dissenting voices, usually loyal to the president, have openly questioned the American role in this conflict.
Nothing to reassure the Gulf countries.
U.S. bases in the region were widely considered to be aimed at projecting power and protecting U.S. interests in the Middle East, but also to ensure the protection of the Gulf states.
Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, researcher
But in 2019, when oil infrastructure was targeted in major attacks in Saudi Arabia, the United States, during Trump’s first term, did not intervene. The perpetrators of the strikes are believed to have been linked to Iran.
These events marked a turning point in minds regarding the security provided by the American presence. Talks have started with Iran. Under the aegis of China, the Saudis and Iranians resumed diplomatic relations in 2023, reactivating a cooperative agreement for the stability of the region.
Complicated relationship
However, China has not replaced the United States as an important partner. Despite an often complicated relationship, the Americans remain central in the region, particularly on the commercial level.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates had also rolled out the red carpet to receive the American president last year: parades, donation of a Qatari plane valued at US 400 million… the charm operation was underway. Trump himself was sending a message to the world by choosing these countries as the first foreign destination of his second term.
He restored relations with Saudi Arabia, which were virtually frozen following the 2018 killing of U.S. resident Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul.
The American president rebuked the journalists who questioned Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on this subject during his visit to the White House in November, even though the American intelligence services had concluded that the prince was involved.
Agreements
Exchanges between the American president and Emirati and Saudi officials were fruitful and concluded in the last year with the promise of deliveries of American weapons and aircraft, increased cooperation in the field of civil nuclear power, and access to American technologies in artificial intelligence.
Agreements which have also raised criticism due to the financial interests of the Trump family. The president’s eldest sons are particularly active in the region, notably in real estate projects and in a cryptocurrency company partly financed by a close friend of the Emirati president.
“For President Trump, interest in the region is both personal and political,” summarizes Mr. Gause.
When the war is over, Gulf states will have to grapple with the costs and benefits of the relationship, with few alternative options for now.
“It is not a zero-sum game where we choose to go completely towards a power like China or the United States to the detriment of the other, but I am sure that there will be a reassessment of the agreements for collective security in the region,” says Mr. Coates Ulrichsen.
