Climate change and air pollution could threaten the lives of 30 million people a year by 2100.

Mortality from air pollution and extreme temperatures is a major concern and is expected to increase in the future. In a new study led by the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, an international research team found that, according to the most likely projection, annual death rates from air pollution and extreme temperatures could reach 30 million by the end of the century.

The research, based on advanced numerical simulations, suggests a worrying trend: pollution-related deaths are expected to increase fivefold, while temperature-related mortality could increase sevenfold, posing a more critical health risk than pollution atmospheric for at least 20 years. % of world population.

The researchers based their calculations on projections from 2000 to 2090, analyzed at ten-year intervals. The results are published in the journal Natural communications.

“In 2000, approximately 1.6 million people died each year from extreme temperatures, both cold and heat. By the end of the century, in the most likely scenario, this figure will rise to 10, 8 million, or about seven times more. For air pollution, annual deaths in 2000 were about 4.1 million. By the end of the century, this figure rose to 19.5 million, a fold increase. five,” says Dr. Andrea Pozzer, group leader at the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz and adjunct associate professor at the Cyprus Institute in Nicosia, Cyprus.

The study shows significant regional differences in future mortality rates. South and East Asia are expected to see the largest increases, due to an aging population, with air pollution still playing a major role.

In contrast, in high-income regions, such as Western Europe, North America, Australasia and Asia-Pacific, deaths linked to extreme temperatures are expected to exceed those caused by air pollution. In some countries in these regions, such as the United States, England, France, Japan and New Zealand, this change is already underway.

The disparity is likely to widen, with extreme temperatures becoming a greater health risk than air pollution, also in central and eastern European countries (e.g. Poland and Romania) and parts of America of the South (for example, Argentina and Chile).

By the end of the century, temperature-related health risks are expected to exceed those from air pollution for a fifth of the world’s population, highlighting the urgent need for comprehensive measures to mitigate this growing public health risk.

“Climate change is not just an environmental problem; it is a direct threat to public health,” says Andrea Pozzer.

“These results underline the crucial importance of implementing decisive mitigation measures now to avoid future loss of human life,” adds Jean Sciare, director of the Center for Climate and Atmospheric Research (CARE-C ) from the Cyprus Institute, main contributor to the study.