Officially, the United States and China have been mending relations since a meeting between Presidents Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in San Francisco last year, followed by numerous visits by American officials to Beijing. But in practice, relations remain tense.
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During his visit to China scheduled for Wednesday to Friday, the head of American diplomacy Antony Blinken will face a difficult context to continue bilateral negotiations on various subjects, from defense to the economy.
American pressure on Chinese industry has never been so strong, with an increase demanded by Washington in customs duties on steel and aluminum for Chinese companies, accused of “cheating” because they benefit from abundant subsidies.
Washington is also strengthening its alliances in Asia. Japan plans to join the AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom and United States) defense alliance while the United States conducts exercises with the Philippines in the South China Sea, a high-tension area.
“Blinken’s trip will not be an easy task,” underlines Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, interviewed by AFP.
“Limit the rise of China”
The main sources of tension are economic. China sees American attempts to reduce its industrial production and block access to the most advanced chips as a trade war.
“Beijing views these growing controls as emblematic of efforts by the United States to limit China’s rise,” says Ryan Hass, a China specialist at the Brookings Institution.
In April, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen did not rule out possible sanctions against China for industrial overcapacity. She believes that Beijing’s massive subsidies to key sectors have led to excess production, forcing companies to export goods abroad at ridiculous prices.
The US Congress adopted a law on Tuesday requiring the very popular application TikTok to cut its ties with its Chinese parent company ByteDance, otherwise it risks being banned in the United States. Parliamentarians fear that it could be used to spread propaganda, which the company has denied.
But “can China give up on its development (to allay US fears)? It’s impossible,” judges Lyu Xiang, expert in Sino-American relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS).
Support for Russia
Mr. Blinken said he wanted to encourage China to reduce its support for Russia, engaged in a war against Ukraine for the third year.
China has provided key assistance to Russia in its biggest rearmament effort since Soviet times, US officials say.
Beijing has refrained from providing direct military assistance, but has exported equipment that could have both civilian and military use, according to Washington.
“China can’t have it both ways,” Mr. Blinken said last week. “If China claims on the one hand to maintain positive and friendly relations with Europe and other countries, on the other hand it cannot fuel what is the greatest threat to European security since the end of the cold War”.
By playing a role in resolving the conflict, Beijing may want to cultivate its image as a world power and peacemaker, analysts say.
But China says it rejects “criticism or pressure” on its ties with Russia, which have only strengthened since the invasion of Ukraine.
And while the United States has also suggested that China use its good relations with Iran to encourage restraint in clashes with Israel, Beijing has repeatedly stressed that it is up to Washington to push Israel to agree to a ceasefire. fire.
“Hostile declaration”
The meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping in November sparked a wave of optimism. But since then, “from China’s point of view (…) the United States has not responded quickly to Beijing’s concerns,” noted Mr. Wu.
The strengthening of ties between Taiwan and Washington, its main partner and arms supplier, are viewed unfavorably by Beijing, which has declared that the autonomous island would return to its control, including by force.
Beyond technology embargoes, American initiatives to strengthen its military alliances in Asia are a major source of discontent for China.
A recent “Joint Vision Statement” between Japan, the Philippines and the United States, following a summit of their leaders in Washington, represents “the most hostile political statement toward China since the end of the Cold War,” notes Mr. Lyu of CASS.
“The United States believes that as long as the situation is stable and not too turbulent, everything is fine.” But “the Chinese side thinks that it is not enough to stabilize relations,” notes Mr. Wu.
And some in Beijing believe that relations will deteriorate without concessions from Washington.
