At the end of April, it is still Donald Trump who has the best chance of winning. I will soon abandon a certain number of American issues to concentrate almost exclusively on covering the electoral campaign.
For those who are passionate about politics, the coming months will be full of twists and turns. If it is rather the fate of American democracy that explains your interest in the 2024 campaign, your nerves will be severely tested.
Biden more present and dynamic
Since his State of the Union speech, the president seems to benefit from an improvement in the polls. If they are not all favorable, they usually confirm a slow but constant improvement.
- Listen to the American political column with Professor Luc Laliberté via QUB :
Still concerned about inflation, the border and pro-Palestinian demonstrations, Joe Biden knows that there are still voters to win, particularly those who support Nikki Haley among the Republicans.
When he looks at the swing states, he sees a path to victory, even if he were to lose the 2020 election gains, Georgia and Arizona.
If nothing is done, Joe Biden seems to take pleasure in increasing the number of trips while his opponent has to sit in court every day.
More lively, more aggressive and in very good humor, the outgoing president misses no opportunity to shoot an arrow in his direction. This is actually what he did this weekend during the annual dinner for press correspondents.
Trump well established in his role
Even if he makes numerous fanciful statements at the beginning and end of each day of his trial, the Republican candidate is having difficulty running a campaign the way he likes.
He constantly defies the judge and I suspect he wants to provoke a sanction which would then allow his supporters to present him once again as the victim of a corrupt system.
Archive photos, AFP
If this narrative framework can allow him to galvanize his supporters, Trump also knows that the sordid details of his numerous extramarital affairs harm him among moderates and independents.
In addition to the fallout from these salacious stories, Trump clan strategists have noted a recent trend in polls: contrary to what was initially believed, the presence of Robert Kennedy Jr as an independent especially harms the Republican candidate.
New deal also for the Republicans, allies of the former president find themselves in court in states like Arizona. Once again, they are accused of having wanted to tamper with the results of the 2020 election. Will independent voters react?
Rare good news for the 45e president last week: Supreme Court justices appear in no rush to quickly decide the question of presidential immunity.
Each additional delay allows Trump to hope not to be convicted before November 5. Once elected, he could intervene and put an end to the procedures…
