It is often taken for granted that the Democratic candidate will have the votes of young people, women and the black community. All he would have to do now is hope that all these wonderful people will put their words into action and show up at the polling stations.
A closer analysis, however, reveals that a certain number of black men would have their ears pulled.
The big guns: Magic Johnson and Barack Obama
With voting in three weeks and polls stagnant (or nearly so), it’s interesting to see where the candidates are holding their rallies now and who they want to talk to.
Not surprisingly, the Harris campaign moved into Michigan and Pennsylvania in October. For Democrats, a victory in these two states would practically give their candidate the keys to the White House.
What struck me most was that in these two states, two black men who were immensely popular within their community were called upon: Magic Johnson and Barack Obama.
AFP
Democrats fear that some black men will vote for Trump or, just as damaging, that they will abstain from voting.
However, there is only one black man in ten who believes that Donald Trump would bring something positive if he were elected, and eight black men in ten have a bad opinion of him.
If black men therefore seem to mostly reject Trump, those who follow him can make a difference.
In 2016, the Republican won 14% of the vote from this clientele, a proportion which fell to 12% in 2020.
As the race is close and we are fighting for seeds in the swing states, we want to maintain or reduce 2020 support for Trump.
Not ready for a woman?
During his speech in Pennsylvania, Obama literally lectured those black men who are hesitant to support Harris. While emphasizing that they seem less mobilized for her than they were for him in 2008 and 2012, he told them to stop making excuses and support a candidate whom he considers clearly superior to his rival.
Of course, a vote in an election may very well be influenced by something other than skin color and it is quite possible that black men consider Donald Trump’s game plan to be superior to that of the Democrat. , but the Harris campaign is instead targeting those who are hesitant because they cannot envision a woman for president.
I believe these efforts by the Democratic campaign demonstrate how close the race is and that both candidates are nearly loaded with votes. For both Trump and Harris, there will be few gains between now and November 5 and we will be betting everything on mobilization.
