Education generally leads to social mobility in natural environments and governance systems characterized by genuine democracy and the rule of law.
But in underdeveloped countries, where dictatorial governments control the ruling systems, education becomes a great economic and social burden on families and educated individuals, who become desperate and have no choice but to think of leaving the country and emigrating abroad.
The Prime Minister’s decisions – before her ouster – to provide a large share of public jobs for the sons and relatives of fighters who contributed to the separation of Bangladesh from Pakistan, were the backbreaker for the Awami League government led by Sheikh Hasina.
Sheikh Hasina’s uninterrupted rule (2009-2024) is the longest in Bangladesh’s history since independence, and thus she had a great opportunity to present a development agenda that would lift citizens out of poverty and unemployment, and achieve a development boom that would change the nature of the country’s lacking infrastructure.
Although the Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, is classified as a leftist party, it has sided with businessmen and the military establishment, developed a tendency towards political conflict, and abused political opponents, which created a state of popular anger, as a result of accumulations over a period of up to 15 consecutive years in power.
Reading the economic indicators of a country requires a comprehensive view, linking these indicators to each other, and the extent of the positive and negative impact of each on the other.
There are readings that see an improvement in the performance of Bangladesh’s macroeconomic indicators during Sheikh Hasina’s administration, but this is not true, which we will address by answering some of the following questions.
Comparisons of economic indicators will be made between 2009 and 2023 if possible, the period for which data is available for the rule of Sheikh Hasina, who was removed from power on August 5, 2024, and we will rely mainly on figures from the World Bank database, as it provides figures for extended periods of time.
What are the features of the GDP performance that has increased over 15 years?
Data from the World Bank’s database shows Bangladesh’s GDP jumped from $102.4 billion to $437.4 billion in 2023, but these figures include output at current prices, meaning they include inflation over the period.
Figures from the same source indicate that the inflation rate reached 5.4% in 2009, then rose to 11.4% in 2011, and the inflation rate in 2023 reached 9.9%, meaning that the inflation rate approached double during the comparison period.
It is noteworthy that despite the increase in the value of the GDP, savings as a percentage of the GDP declined between 2009 and 2023, from 39% in 2009 to 35% in 2023, which means that the burden of living on families increased during Sheikh Hasina’s rule.
What is the poverty and income situation in Bangladesh?
The population in 2023 was about 172.9 million, compared to 146.7 million in 2009, meaning that the population increased by about 26.2 million during Sheikh Hasina’s rule.
This population increase comes despite the declining fertility rates for women in Bangladesh. In 2009, the rate was 2.6%, and it has decreased to 2.3% in 2023.
Figures from the UNDP Human Development Report 2023/24 show that Bangladesh ranked 129th out of 193 countries covered by the Human Development Index, with multidimensional poverty affecting 24.6% of the population and 42.3% of the population feeling severely deprived, during the period 2011-2022.
The income distribution in Bangladesh also reflects a state of inequality, with the poorest 10% of the population receiving 3.5% of the income, while the richest 10% of the population receives about 29% of the income.
What is the truth about unemployment figures in Bangladesh?
Unemployment figures are controversial. In an economy that can be considered primitive, or at best traditional, with a huge population, unemployment figures indicate that the rate in 2009 was about 5%, and in 2023 it reached 5.1%, which is very acceptable in the economy of a developing or even emerging country.
But the problem lies in those statistics that consider any job opportunity, regardless of its field or return, as an exit from the unemployment classification for the individual. Rickshaw drivers (a primitive means of transportation) – who cannot find their daily bread after a hard and exhausting day of work – are considered by the statistics to be among the workers.
Here the reality of the GDP performance appears, which in the case of Bangladesh is described as being highly non-inclusive. If the increase in GDP during Sheikh Hasina’s rule had been from real productive sources, with high added value, it would have added better and more humane job opportunities than is the case now.
Therefore, we can say that unemployment statistics in Bangladesh are misleading, and the saying “numbers describe reality and do not reflect facts” is true.
What is the nature of foreign trade performance?
Bangladesh’s foreign trade figures show that it still suffers from a deficit in the merchandise trade balance, due to the weakness of the production structure, which is still very traditional, not exceeding the traditional performance in the agricultural sector as well as traditional industries, especially the ready-made garments industry.
The volume of foreign trade in goods amounted to 143.9 billion dollars, of which 88.2 billion were for imports of goods, while exports of goods were around 55.7 billion, so the country suffers from a trade deficit of about 32.5 billion.
Analyzing and knowing the nature of commodity imports and exports is useful in knowing the fragility of GDP performance. The large proportion of commodity exports comes from the ready-made garment industry, which constitutes 80% of the value of exports. Then come jute products, home furnishings, shrimp and frozen fish, while commodity imports are limited to oil, which constitutes about 11% of commodity imports, then textiles, food, edible oils, chemicals, threads, plastics and rubber materials.
What is the status of external debt during Hasina’s rule?
External debt is a dilemma for developing countries because of the burden it represents on the state’s general budget, especially if it is not properly invested within a development framework. In the case of Bangladesh, we find that the external public debt has increased significantly.
In 2009, the value of the external debt was 25.3 billion dollars, and in 2022 it jumped to 97 billion, meaning that the value of the increase amounted to 72 billion. Interest expenses as a percentage of public expenses amount to about 24%, while the expenses of state employees amount to about 20%.
One of the problems facing developing countries, including Bangladesh, is that debt management oversight bodies are often lax, due to dictatorial governments, something that was the case during the rule of Sheikh Hasina, whose last term was marked by more repression and arrests of the opposition.
What are the strengths and weaknesses of the country’s economy during Hasina’s rule?
No society is devoid of elements of strength and others that reveal its weaknesses. If we look at the reality of the economy of Bangladesh on the economic level, we find the following.
– Population abundance, as Bangladesh’s human resources can be better utilized, which helps increase the country’s GDP on the one hand, provided that corruption rates decline and government spending is directed towards education and health.
– The general proficiency of Bangladeshis in English enables them to compete for many jobs outside the country, whether those jobs are remote or direct.
The country has large areas on the Bay of Bengal, as well as a group of freshwater rivers, which can increase the country’s fish wealth, and can also be used to generate electricity.
Bangladesh has good areas of forests where it can expand the timber industry, or stimulate the tourism sector, especially open forest tourism.
Bangladesh has many types of fruits that are characteristic of the Indian subcontinent, and food industries can be established on them.
Bangladesh still suffers from the absence of an irrigation and drainage network, to benefit from the rains that fall for about 8 months every year, and the country suffers from drought after the end of the rainy season, due to the leakage of rainwater into the Bay of Bengal. During the drought, agriculture is deprived of regular irrigation operations.
– Relying only on the ready-made garment industry in the industrial sector leads to weak performance of the gross domestic product, and deprives the country of achieving greater added value. It is necessary to move towards other industries that achieve higher added value, such as the assembly industries of durable goods, or the electronics industries.
– Energy import is one of the negative factors for Bangladesh, despite the country’s production of natural gas, but it was noted that natural gas production in 2023 decreased by about 5% compared to 2012.
Bangladesh’s ranking on the Corruption Perceptions Index remains low, indicating the prevalence of corruption. According to the index’s 2023 figures, the country scored only 24 out of 100, which is the total index score.
What is the future of Bangladesh’s economy after Hasina’s removal?
In the midst of popular uprisings that lead to a change of rulers, there are usually transitional periods, and a desire on the part of the new rulers to gain the trust of the citizens. The news – reported by the media – carried the nomination of the protesters and the leaders of the student movement, the great economist Dr. Muhammad Yunus, to run the country during the transitional period, and that they are demanding the army’s resignation from managing this stage.
Undoubtedly, Younis’ presence is beneficial, and requires the man to rearrange the economic and social files, and he must also prepare a legislative agenda that spares the country from negative bias in favor of certain categories or segments of the people.
The most difficult stage will come after holding elections and having a responsible government to lead a real development process, which can change the economic and social reality in Bangladesh, and benefit from the accumulated studies through international institutions or within the country. All of this will be on condition that there is no tampering and negative political exploitation between the political parties and forces. It may help the success of the experiment if the students do not miss it.
