Khartoum – Sudan’s economy began to wake up from the shock of the war that erupted two years ago, but experts and investors have the right to destroy their institutions believe that reconstruction and revitalization of production and the economic life cycle needs an active vision and plan and polarizing huge financing that is not available within the country.
According to the International Monetary Fund, the gross domestic product in Sudan shrinkled 18% in 2023, and Sudanese Finance Minister Gabriel Ibrahim expected that the shrinkage in the Sudanese economy would reach about 28% by the end of the year 2024 before it bounced to achieve growth by 0.3%, then 0.7% in the next two years.
The national currency in Sudan has collapsed dramatically since April 15, 2023, and the dollar was trading about 2700 Sudanese pounds in the parallel market, compared to about 600 Sudanese pounds before the war.
Facts and numbers
According to the data of the Central Bureau of Statistics in Sudan, the inflation rate in February fell to 142.34%, compared to 145.14% in January.
The value of both exports and imports decreased during the past year, but the amount of the decrease in the incoming was much greater:
- The value of Sudanese exports fell to $ 3.13 billion in 2024 from 4.35 billion dollars in 2022, a decrease of 28%.
- The value of imports decreased to $ 4.91 billion from 11.09 billion dollars, a decrease of 66%, according to the Ministry of Commerce.
Economic researcher Ibrahim Salehin believes that the Sudanese economy has been significantly affected by the war, which makes its reform take several paths, the first of which is completely ending the war, restoring political stability to the country, and reviving the agricultural sector.
Salehin tells Al -Jazeera Net that the agricultural sector has great potential and opportunities that enable the economy to recover, as well as investing in infrastructure and basic services, such as electricity and water supplies, which is pushing towards recovery in the third year to explode the conflict.
Despite the widespread destruction in the industry, Khartoum state, which takes more than 80% of the industries, some factories returned to work, as Rotana’s crops resumed their activities last month, with other mills followed by the end of this month.
For his part, Mohamed Abdel -Moneim, owner of a factory in Khartoum, destroyed by the war, says that the war implemented the owners of industries after they lost the devices and equipment in addition to the structure of the industry, and most of them get funding from banks, which requires the reschedule of their debts and granting them exemptions in order to return to production.
In a statement to (Al -Jazeera Net), the investor questioned the possibility of the return of those who transferred their investments out of the country due to the uncertainty and privileges that they have benefited from, as well as the transfer of the war to the west of the country, which was considered a major source of oil pills and livestock, in addition to the collapse of the infrastructure and the energy crisis (electricity) on which the industry depends.
Reconstruction vision
The Supreme Committee for Construction, formed by the Sudanese Sovereign Council, approved a framework that aims to direct energies towards rebuilding the social and urban fabric better than before the war, and to use the reality of destruction to rebuild institutions and places with architectural quality and social and economic engineering.
The plan, which Al -Jazeera Net obtained a copy of, indicated that its implementation will be with the participation of the state, society, the private sector and regional and international organizations, through 4 strategic entries that include administrative, legislative, political, urban, and social.
The plan set 3 stages for reconstruction as follows:
- First: The initial response that follows the end of the war, which includes emergency humanitarian services, support for stability and peace.
- Second: The transitional period focuses on developing the capabilities of society and creating mechanisms for economic and political reconstruction.
- Third: The stage of enhancing sustainability by activating the reconstruction plans and consolidating all the openings of not returning to the conflict.
The plan estimated the economic sector losses at about 108.8 billion dollars, and the sources of financing were set as follows:
- Imposing a reconstruction tax on the Sudanese capable inside and outside the country (expatriates).
- Reducing government spending, providing instrument for sukuk.
- External financing with loans and grants from Arab, African and Islamic countries and funds.
The plan proposed to focus on the influential sectors and start the agricultural sector, which contributes to the gross domestic product by 28.9%, then the services sector, which contributes 56.7% and the industrial 14.4%, and the agricultural was less affected and the fastest growing.
The vision called for opening windows for the private, local and foreign sector to participate in the reconstruction according to the finance formulas, the construction and operation system, then the return of ownership, the establishment of sukuk boxes in the global market and the expansion of jewelry and foreign investment.
To compensate for citizens and investors who have lost their homes, properties and investments, the vision proposes to establish a regional and international compensation fund, provide facilitated financing for those affected by the private sector until it returns to production, and reform the banking system to contribute to reviving the economy through flexible financing formulas.
Services troubles
For his part, Sudanese Minister of Health Haitham Mohamed Ibrahim says that the losses in the health sector are fatal, as the value of medical devices and equipment lost by public and plundering hospitals in the state of Khartoum is only 2.2 billion dollars.
Ibrahim tells Al -Jazeera Net that during the war, the institutions concerned were able to accommodate 13 thousand doctors, and the Board of Medicines and toxins allowed 19 drug factories that were destroyed by the contractual industry outside the country and supplied their medications with the same commercial signs, which contributed to the availability of medicines.
According to the Minister of Health, a plan to advance the sector is based on internal efforts and initiatives, and the government also received pledges from Saudi Arabia and Qatar to support health in the emergency phase, and during the past week the city of Port Sudan received technical delegations from the two countries, along with international organizations that are currently contributing to the revival of the sector.
In turn, economist Mohamed Al -Nayer says that the industrial sector is the most affected by the sectors by more than 80%, followed by the commercial sector, as well as the deterioration of the exchange rate of the pound against foreign currencies due to the delay in replacing the national currency and the spread of forgery.
In an interview with (Al -Jazeera Net), Al -Nayer believes that the last months witnessed a relatively stability in the currency exchange rate after increasing the revenues of exporting gold to more than two billion dollars in 2024, in addition to the return of liquidity to the banking system and electronic dealings in services, which calls for optimism with economic stability in the event of the war.
The expert expected a decline in unemployment, which exceeded 40% before the war, after the economy moved by reconstruction and the flow of internal investments after the immigration of investors abroad and the recovery of the private sector, which contributes to the operation of the workforce.
