US President -returning US President Donald Trump has ignited the trade war with China by imposing an additional 10% on the goods coming to the United States from the second largest economy in the world, which led Beijing to impose retaliatory definitions on a number of American goods.
But with Trump’s sufficiency in imposing only an additional 10%, which is less than what he pledged in his election campaign, and Beijing’s junness to dialogue, the situation remains foggy between definitions, counter -definitions and the possibilities of agreement, especially in light of leaks that China may pay the re -agreement that it reached with Washington in general 2020 at the end of Trump’s first period.
Continuous war
Economist Ahmed Aqel, in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net, says that the trade war between the United States and China has proven that it is still present and continuous and may extend for coming periods with more ignition.
The mind of the great impact of China imposed additional definitions of 10% on oil, coal, gas, cars and agricultural equipment, and is scheduled to enter into force on February 10.
He adds that the additional Chinese definitions would curb President Trump’s efforts to increase their export by removing the restrictions that were previously imposed.
He pointed out that the American auto sector is also affected by the additional definitions in light of China turning into electric cars, and the presence of major companies in the United States such as “Tesla” and others looking for markets in strong competition from Chinese companies.
Aqel considered that the definitions and counter definitions are the beginning of a commercial war that depends on markets and fees, but what must be paid to it is the large risk rate that can be confronted in these periods, especially in light of inflation that has not decreased significantly, which risk not lowering interest rates with a significant increase in their prices. .
He stressed that this may cause a kind of inflation, which means that ordinary people and investors alike are affected, expecting a significant trade war.
He explained that there are other impressive data, including the strength of the dollar against the Chinese yuan, as well as pressure to reduce oil prices and the impact of American and Chinese financial markets, especially with regard to major companies exporting abroad.
The movement of capital
He pointed out that this may have a role in the possibility of disposal of funds to emerging markets, including Arab markets, with the influence of China and the United States, in addition to that there is a possibility of some indirect impact on investments that exist in Arab countries or in Arab companies.
He explained that the strength of the dollar or the Chinese yuan may affect Arab currencies, and therefore may contribute to a change or a specific move in the financial markets.
For his part, economist Kamil Al -Sari explains that China responded to Trump’s definitions as follows:
- A tax on hydrocarbons, coal and some vehicles from the United States.
- Customs duties of 15% on charcoal and natural gas imports from the United States as of February 10.
- 10% customs duties on American oil imports, agricultural machines, high -energy sports vehicles and trucks.
US exports of hydrocarbons to China reached $ 7 billion in 2024, according to Chinese customs data, a major market for American exporters, but for China this number remains large compared to power imports from Russia, which is more than one billion dollars last year.
Al -Sari indicated that Beijing revealed a new round of restrictions on the exports of many important minerals and metals used in industry and high technology such as Tenkston, Teleranium, Yizmot, Molibidium, etc., and in parallel, China has opened an investigation into the fight against the American giant technology company “Google”.
China has also placed several American companies, such as the group that owns Tommy Hilviger and Calvin Klein and BVC Corp ready -made clothes and giant biotechnology, on its list of unreliable entities.
Non -aggressive response
The economist at Benonic Asset Management Company Chu Zhang says that the Chinese response is not aggressive because China targets only certain products, while American drawings target all Chinese exports.
He added that this may be just the beginning of a long process of negotiations between the two countries, and Chinese ads come in the period before a possible discussion between Chinese President Che Jinping and his American counterpart Donald Trump.
Sari says that the real reasons for Trump’s procedures are to increase the volume of China’s exports to the United States by 4% in 2024 and 16% last December, which led him to raise fees on imports from China.
He continued, “As for China, foreign trade tends to gain great importance since it struck the Corona and real estate crisis, which has lost the Chinese families, which invested a large part of their savings in the housing sector, confidence, which pressed the growth of consumption,” noting that it was based on the Chinese economic performance during a period Beyond Corona, exports seem essential to the second largest economy in the world.
Al -Sari pointed out that the American deficit in the trade balance with China amounted to 272 billion dollars in 2024, and with the European Union amounted to 214 billion dollars (76 billion dollars in favor of Germany), and with Mexico 157 billion dollars, noting that Trump says he cannot continue The United States is opening its markets for all these countries that benefit from the goods of America and do not accept its goods.
It is not a precedent
And the trade war is not in the new state. In Trump’s first, customs duties were imposed on China, and he went further by signing an agreement with Beken obligating it to import more US commodities worth $ 200 billion.
When the Corona’s pandemic occurred as the exports all over the world, raising the trade deficit in favor of China, while the Chinese imports did not rise only by 2%.
The size of the surplus in the Chinese trade balance with the world was 992 billion dollars in 2024.
Who?
Sari considered that the error is not borne by China, Europe, Mexico or Canada, but rather the policies that were followed by the United States. “Of course, everyone knows, including the European Union, that China has benefited from its great benefit, as it intensified its exports to all countries of the world,” he added.
“All these customs duties did not succeed in Trump’s first state, as despite all these drawings imposed at the time, the trade balance deficit was always in favor of China,” he said, noting that Beijing was achieving a surplus with the United States in the trade of basic materials only that Perhaps it has contributed to providing goods as much as the purchasing power of the American citizen, as it comes at a low price.
On the other hand, Al -Sari says that the United States has a surplus in the trade balance of about 145 billion dollars in advanced technology, but China has begun to compensate for its delay in the technological scale, noting that the “Deep Cick” application for artificial intelligence requires an investment of only $ 700 million, which is an amount that does not represent Something for $ 16 billion invested by American companies in their artificial intelligence applications.
Loser
He adds that Trump is afraid that China will advance even in the field of technology, and it is now apparently able to do so, as Trump would like to reinforce many American technological companies such as Tek Tok, noting that Biden has already stopped exporting chips and technological components to China.
He believes that the lesson learned from the launch of the Deep Seck application is that “if we pushed China to its own house, it will develop in areas that were not taken into account”, so the loser in these developments is Trump, who admitted that raising customs duties will raise prices and production costs because Many companies, including American companies operating in Europe and China, will also be subject to these taxes, and thus the cost of production in the United States and the prices of goods that flow to American soil will rise.
