Three years after leaving the White House, Donald Trump won his first test at the polls with a clear victory in the Republican primary in Iowa. But his rivals remain on the lookout and above all, his path back to the Oval Office is strewn with legal pitfalls.
Proof of this is his appearance Tuesday in a New York court for a new civil trial, the day after his triumph in Iowa and one week before the next right-wing primary in New Hampshire.
This is what the months preceding the November presidential election should look like for the 77-year-old tycoon, several times indicted and candidate: an election, a hearing.
For the moment, “Trump’s legal problems have not greatly affected his race for the Republican nomination”, notes to AFP Tim Hagle, professor of political science at the University of Iowa.
Monday evening with his 51% of the vote – a victory announced just half an hour after the start of the votes – the ex-president left his rivals Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley far behind him.
“Stop being in denial. Trump will be the Republican nominee. It will be Trump or Biden in November, period,” law professor Laurence Tribe seemed to get annoyed on X (formerly Twitter) at the inevitable speculation surrounding the candidates.
But other observers believe that it is perhaps too early to rule out Ron DeSantis and especially Nikki Haley from the race, as the year ahead is so unpredictable.
Momentum?
If she came third in Iowa, former United States Ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley could, for example, strike a big blow with New Hampshire, a vote which takes place a month before that in her state of Carolina of the South, of which she was governor.
New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu, a Republican who has lined up behind her, said he was hopeful that Ms. Haley could “break the presuppositions” that Donald Trump will be the undisputed winner.
“Haley can say she has momentum after Iowa, even with a third place,” Professor Hagle points out.
“If she finishes second with a good score or if she wins in New Hampshire, that could allow her to present herself as the most viable alternative to Trump, but she would still need to have a good score in South Carolina and elsewhere,” he adds.
But Donald Trump maintains a 14-point lead over Nikki Haley in New Hampshire according to poll aggregator RealClearPolitics.
In any case, Mr. Trump wins according to the polls by 30 points in South Carolina, which will vote before “Super Tuesday” on March 5 during which around fifteen states will go to the polls to decide between the candidates.
True unknown
In addition to his victory in Iowa, other polls indicate that many Republicans will vote for Mr. Trump even if he is convicted in court.
But a third of those attending Iowa campaign meetings said they would consider him unfit to be president if he were convicted of a crime, said Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University. “And these are fervent Republicans,” he emphasizes.
Therefore, he believes, “unless there is a conviction of Trump neither Haley nor DeSantis have a real chance of winning the nomination.”
This is where the real unknown lies for some analysts, at a time when his appearances before the courts are accelerating.
And the former president’s trial for attempts to overturn the results of the 2020 election is set to begin in March, the day before “Super Tuesday.”
“Even if Trump is the nominee, that does not mean that the election will be easy,” Professor Hagle insists.
“November is far away and things can change the dynamics of the race,” he said, notably raising the possibility that he could be eliminated from the primary race in certain states because of his role during the assault on the Capitol by his supporters on January 6, 2021.
