Modeling study finds Alpine glaciers will lose at least a third of their volume by 2050

Even if global warming stopped completely, the volume of ice in the European Alps would decrease by 34% by 2050. If the trend observed over the last 20 years continued at the same rate, almost half of the volume of ice would be reduced. lost as scientists from the University of Lausanne (UNIL, Switzerland) have demonstrated in a new international study.

By 2050, 26 years from now, we will have lost at least 34% of the ice volume of the European Alps, even if global warming stopped completely and immediately. This is the prediction of a new computer model developed by scientists from the Faculty of Geosciences and the Environment of the University of Lausanne (UNIL) in collaboration with the University of Grenoble, ETHZ and the University from Zurich.

In this scenario, developed using machine learning algorithms and climate data, warming is stopped in 2022, but glaciers continue to suffer losses due to the inertia of the climate-glacier system. This most optimistic forecast, however, is far from a realistic scenario for the future, as greenhouse gas emissions continue to increase around the world.

In reality, more than half of the ice volume will disappear

Another more realistic projection from the study shows that, without changes or drastic measures, if the melting trend of the last 20 years continues, almost half (46%) of the Alpine ice volume will have effectively disappeared. here 2050. This figure could even be 65%, if we extrapolate data from the last ten years only.

Unlike traditional models, which project estimates for the end of the century, the new study, published in Geophysical research letters, considers the shortest term, which makes it easier to see its relevance in our own lives and thus encourages action. How old will our children be in 2050?

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These estimates are all the more important as the disappearance of kilometers of ice will have significant consequences on the population, infrastructure and water reserves. “The data used to construct the scenarios stopped at 2022, a year which was followed by an exceptionally hot summer. It is therefore likely that the situation will be even worse than the one we present,” estimates Samuel Cook, researcher at UNIL and first author of the study.

The simulations were carried out using artificial intelligence algorithms. The scientists used deep learning methods to train their model to understand physical concepts and fed it with real climate and glaciological data. “Machine learning is revolutionizing the integration of complex data into our models. This essential step, previously notoriously complicated and computationally expensive, now becomes more precise and efficient,” explains Guillaume Jouvet, prof. at the FGSE and co-author of the study.