Wall Street was closed on Monday due to the Martin Luther King Day celebration in the United States. At the close on Friday, after a positive indicator of producer price inflation and contrasting banking publications, remember that Wall Street ended the week in disorganized order. The S&P 500 gained +0.08% to 4,783 pts, bringing its progression over the past week to +0.43%. The Dow Jones lost 0.31%, returning to 37,592 pts (-0.24% over the week). The Nasdaq rose timidly by +0.02% to 14,972 pts, for an overall weekly change of +0.87%.
The American producer price index for the month of December fell by 0.1% compared to the previous month (+0.2% consensus). It only increased by 1% over one year (+1.3% consensus). Excluding food and energy, the indicator was stable compared to November (+0.2% market consensus). It increased by 1.8% over one year excluding volatile elements (+2% market consensus).
According to the FedWatch barometer, the probability is more than 93% that the Fed will opt for a monetary status quo on January 31, leaving its rates unchanged between 5.25 and 5.50%, while the first easing would take place on March 20 (76% probability). The same tool shows that rates could end the year in a range of 3.75 to 4% (approximately 32% probability), or between 3.5 and 3.75% (40% probability).
