The next presidential election in the United States represents the greatest political risk for the future of the planet because, whatever its outcome, American democratic institutions will be mistreated, the Eurasia Group estimated on Monday.
In its annual report, the political risk consulting firm estimates that the November 5 vote “will test American democracy at a level the nation has not seen in 150 years,” a reference to the Civil War American.
“The United States is already the world’s most divided and dysfunctional advanced industrial democracy. The 2024 election will exacerbate this problem regardless of who wins.”
“The outcome of the vote is currently a toss-up and the only certainty is that the social fabric, political institutions and international reputation of America will continue to be damaged,” adds the research firm. .
If Donald Trump, in pole position for the Republican primaries, loses again to President Joe Biden, he will likely expose massive fraud and launch widespread intimidation campaigns against officials and election workers, according to the report.
However, in the event of Joe Biden’s victory, the United States could also face an “unprecedented political crisis” if Mr. Trump is incarcerated in one of the many cases for which he is being prosecuted, judges Eurasia Group. Large-scale violence, however, remains unlikely, according to the report.
Joe Biden presents the campaign as a fight to save democracy from a new Trump presidency, whose supporters stormed the Capitol on January 6, 2021 in the hope of preventing the certification of Mr. Biden’s victory.
In the event of defeat, Joe Biden should bow to the results. But many Democrats will challenge the real estate mogul’s legitimacy and some will refuse to confirm his victory, citing the constitutional ban on anyone who has “engaged in insurrection” from holding office, according to Eurasia Group .
The research firm further predicts that a Donald Trump returned to the White House will use the state as a “weapon” to hunt down his rivals and crush dissent.
Eurasia Group ranks violence in the Middle East as the second highest global risk, with the war between Israel and Hamas “likely to be only the first phase of an expanding conflict in 2024.”
The third biggest risk concerns Ukraine, with the study predicting that the country will be de facto divided in 2024 as Kyiv works to retake areas seized by Russia.
In any case, Ukraine would suffer a new blow in the event of the victory of Donald Trump, who makes no secret of his opposition to the billions of dollars in aid paid to Kyiv.
