Families will change dramatically in coming years, study finds

The number of an individual’s relatives is expected to decrease by more than 35% in the near future. At the same time, the structure of families will change. The number of cousins, nieces, nephews and grandchildren will decrease sharply, while the number of great-grandparents and grandparents will increase significantly. In 1950, a 65-year-old woman had an average of 41 living parents. By 2095, a woman of the same age will have on average only 25 living parents.

Diego Alburez-Gutierrez heads the research group on kinship inequality at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR) in Rostock. With Ivan Williams of the University of Buenos Aires and Hal Caswell of the University of Amsterdam, he recently published a study projecting the evolution of human kinship relationships around the world.

The work is published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

“We wondered how demographic change would affect kinship ‘endowment’ in the future,” says Alburez-Gutierrez. “What was the size, structure and age distribution of families in the past, and how will they change in the future? »

For the study, researchers analyzed historical and projected data from the 2022 revision of the United Nations World Population Prospects.

“We use mathematical models to represent the relationship between a person, their ancestors and descendants over a given period of time. The model provides average age and gender distributions for different types of kinship for each calendar year,” explains Alburez-Gutierrez. One thousand kinship histories were calculated for each country.

Families in decline

Researchers documented differences in family size across the world, which they defined as the number of great-grandparents, grandparents, parents, children, grandchildren and d great-grandchildren, aunts and uncles, nieces and nephews, brothers and sisters and cousins.

“We expect overall family size to decline permanently in all regions of the world. We expect the largest declines to occur in South America and the Caribbean,” says Alburez-Gutierrez.

In 1950, the average 65-year-old woman had 56 living relatives there. By 2095, this number is expected to fall to 18.3 family members, a decline of 67%. In North America and Europe, where families are already relatively small, the changes will be less pronounced. Here, a 65-year-old woman had about 25 living relatives in 1950, but by 2095 she will only have 15.9.

Relatives play a crucial role in providing informal care

Kinship projections are essential in the context of rapidly aging populations, as smaller birth cohorts must increasingly care for older adults who have fewer or no relatives.

“Our results confirm that the availability of kinship resources is decreasing worldwide. As the age gap between individuals and their relatives widens, people will have not only smaller, but also older family networks . Take the case of grandparents and great-grandparents, “

The study highlights the need to invest in social support systems that ensure the well-being of individuals at all stages of life. A large portion of the world’s population currently does not have access to highly developed social support systems. For them, family ties remain an important source of informal support and care, and this is likely to remain the case in the future.

“These seismic shifts in family structure will bring significant societal challenges that policymakers in the North and South should consider,” says Alburez-Gutierrez.