Will Donald Trump crush the race for the Republican nomination for the American presidential election from the start? Or will his rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis spring a surprise? Answer in ten days in Iowa, the state which has been throwing the big primaries ball since 1972.
The four-time criminally indicted former president faces the judgment of voters for the first time since leaving the White House in unimaginable chaos in 2021.
The billionaire and his rivals are vying to unseat Democratic President Joe Biden from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington.
“As long as he is in the White House, the American dream will be dead,” says Donald Trump during his meetings, promising, as in 2016, to restore the country “to its greatness”.
Army of volunteers
His opponents may be alarmed by the danger that the former president represents for democracy – they particularly decry his comments on migrants who “poison the blood” of the United States – but nothing works.
Despite his indictments, some of which put him at risk of prison, the ex-businessman is credited with 60% of the votes against his Republican opponents in the polls and enjoys one of the largest leads ever seen.
Because in Iowa as across the country, the tribune, endowed with undeniable political flair, has a still very loyal base, which brushes aside his escapades and his legal troubles.
Donald Trump also relies on an army of volunteers who have been combing every nook and cranny of this Midwestern agricultural state for months, distributing pamphlets, signs and his famous red caps.
Will that be enough to win on January 15?
The verdict will fall from 7 p.m. local time, when voters will gather in Iowa’s schools, libraries and fire stations to nominate their candidate by secret ballot.
Haley and DeSantis on his trail
That evening, six other Republicans will be in the running to block the path of Donald Trump. Only two seem to still have a chance.
On one side, the former ambassador to the UN under the Trump administration, Nikki Haley, the new darling of the American right.
Former governor of South Carolina, the fifty-year-old is the only woman in the race. She is also one of the rare candidates who wants to continue to support Ukraine financially and militarily.
On the other side, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a conservative with shocking positions on immigration or abortion.
The forty-year-old, former naval officer, bet everything on Iowa, visiting each of its 99 counties. He can also count on the valuable sponsorship of Kim Reynolds, governor of this state.
Suspected among other things of severely lacking in charisma, his rating has however largely collapsed in recent months.
These two candidates each peak at around 11 or 12% in the polls.
But observers do not rule out the possibility of one or the other creating a surprise and eating into part of the tempestuous billionaire’s dizzying lead.
However, if Donald Trump does not obtain the landslide victory predicted for him in Iowa, he risks appearing much more vulnerable for the rest of the race.
The following week, the highly orchestrated ballet of primaries will take the candidates to New Hampshire, before Nevada and South Carolina in February.
In turn, the 50 states of the Union will vote until June to allocate their quota of delegates to the candidates for the national convention in July, which will officially nominate the Republican presidential candidate.
For Donald Trump, 77, the priority is to ensure his victory before his trials begin, some of which are due to begin in March.
What about the Democrats?
Already strong in the official support of his party, outgoing President Joe Biden, 81, should, barring any major surprises, be designated in August as their candidate. And this despite repeated criticism of his age.
Minnesota lawmaker Dean Phillips and best-selling author Marianne Williamson are vying to dethrone him, although their chances don’t seem realistic.
