Decryption | The Democrats, a year later

(New York) This was the very first bill put to a vote in Congress after Donald Trump’s inauguration as 47^e president. The measure aimed to make preventive detention mandatory for migrants arrested for even minor crimes, including shoplifting.

No fewer than 46 Democratic representatives voted in favor of the Republican text on January 22, 2025, imitating 12 senators from their party. The next day, a refugee advocacy group accused them of “political cowardice.” During a fiery speech in the House of Representatives, New York progressive MP Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez exclaimed: “It’s shameful!” »

It was also a strong symbol of the powerlessness of the Democrats at the start of Donald Trump’s second term. The latter had just won the popular vote by banking on Americans’ anger at the cost of living and illegal immigration. And Democrats did not dare challenge him on one of the questions that had sunk Kamala Harris’ candidacy, while others shouted in vain.

A year later, Democrats are no longer as vulnerable on the two issues that paved the way for Donald Trump’s return to the White House. In fact, they may have gained an advantage over the president.

“Affordability”: a winning theme

In 2025, nothing will have boosted the morale of the Democrats as much as their victories in the local elections of November 4. Victories achieved by better-than-expected margins in several states, including New Jersey and Virginia.

And no theme will have pleased their candidates more than that of “affordability”. Clearly, the polls weren’t lying.

Voters felt that Donald Trump, obsessed with his ballroom and his expansionist aims, was not doing enough to tackle the cost of living crisis. And they expressed their discontent at the polls, suggesting that the gains made in 2024 by the president among Latinos and young people, among others, were not irreversible.

These results have convinced Democrats that they have a winning theme at the start of a political year which will be marked by the mid-term elections next November.

These results are also accompanied by a change in voters’ attitudes towards the two major parties. At the end of 2024, 47% of voters declared themselves Republican or politically close to Republicans, compared to 43% Democratic or Democratic-leaning, according to a Gallup poll.

At the start of 2026, 48% of voters identify as Democrats or politically close to Democrats, compared to 40% as Republicans or Republican-leaning, according to Gallup.

A double in Congress?

Democrats cannot take sole credit for this change. Donald Trump has contributed by adopting unpopular policies, his tariffs being one of the most prominent examples.

But the Gallup poll is part of the data that contributes to Democrats’ optimism, a year after Donald Trump’s return to the presidency. They are entering the second year of his second term even dreaming of the possibility of becoming a majority in the Senate thanks to the mid-term elections, and not only in the House of Representatives.

“Thanks to a series of candidate recruitment successes, the withdrawal of some Republicans from important votes and the deterioration of Donald Trump’s political position, an opportunity now presents itself,” wrote Dan Pfeiffer, former adviser to Barack Obama, in a newsletter last week.

Pfeiffer was reacting in particular to the decision of former Alaska Democratic Representative Mary Peltola to run for a Senate seat in that state in 2026. Democrats must make a net gain of four seats to conquer the upper house of Congress. In addition to Alaska, Maine, Ohio and North Carolina are among the states where they think they have a chance of taking their seats from the Republicans.

They have not given up hope of creating a surprise in Texas and Iowa either.

Confrontation around the ICE

In the meantime, they will have the opportunity to confront Donald Trump and his Republican allies in Congress on what has long been one of their trump cards, immigration.

A year later, Democrats are no longer out of step on this crucial issue. According to an AP/NORC poll published on January 14, 61% of American voters disapprove of the way Donald Trump manages immigration. This negative result is not unrelated to the methods deployed by immigration enforcement (ICE) agents to arrest and deport irregular migrants.

Methods that lead a plurality of Americans (46%) to support the idea of ​​abolishing ICE, according to a recent poll The Economist/YouGov.

The confrontation between Democrats and Republicans on immigration could arise around the budget bill which must be adopted by January 30 to avoid a new paralysis of the State.

Some Democrats are juggling the idea of ​​conditioning their support for such a text on reforms to ICE, including banning the wearing of masks and requiring arrest warrants.

Others go further by adopting a slogan that would have been unthinkable a year ago: “Abolish ICE.”