(New York) Steve Bannon’s verdict came in the middle of an election night that couldn’t have gone worse for Republicans.
“The midterm elections start tonight, and the warning signs are flashing,” declared Donald Trump’s former strategist on his podcast Tuesday evening.
He wasn’t just referring to Democratic victories in the gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey. Victories won by margins greater than what pollsters predicted. Fifteen points in Virginia. Thirteen points in New Jersey.
He also spoke about the special elections held in Georgia, a red state where Democrats took away their seats on an important state commission from two Republicans. Georgia Democrats have not won such an election in nearly 20 years.
“This is a warning that this case is going to cut deeper,” Steve Bannon added.
This “affair” is these mid-term elections scheduled for November 2026, and of which Tuesday’s polls are perhaps the omen. Bad for Republicans. Happy for the Democrats, who dream of a blue wave allowing them to become a majority in the House of Representatives and perhaps even in the Senate.
Economic dissatisfaction
The day after these elections, Donald Trump rejected all blame.
” THE shutdown has been a significant, negative factor for Republicans,” the president said while addressing his party’s senators at the White House. “And (analysts) say the fact that I wasn’t on the ballot was the biggest factor. I don’t know if that’s true, but I was honored that they said that. »
The results tell a different story, one that reflects voter dissatisfaction with the president’s economic management.
According to exit polls, the economy was the most important issue to voters in Virginia and New Jersey. However, Democratic candidates for governor of these states won by 20 percentage points the vote of voters for whom this issue was the main concern.
In 2024, Donald Trump was re-elected thanks to these voters. A year later, they slapped him.
Republicans have also been unable to preserve the gains made by Donald Trump in 2024 among young people and Latinos, among others.
Defection of young people and Latinos
In 2024, for example, Kamala Harris won only 40% of the vote among young men aged 18 to 29. Following Tuesday’s polls, New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Mikie Sherrill claimed 57 percent of the same group’s votes and Virginia gubernatorial candidate Abigail Spanberger claimed 56 percent.
PHOTO STEPHANIE SCARBROUGH, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Democrat Abigail Spanberger during her victory speech in Richmond, Virginia, Tuesday evening
Zohran Mamdani, elected mayor of New York, is the undisputed champion of this category, with 68% of the vote of young men in this age group.
In New Jersey, moreover, Union City serves as an example to illustrate Republican losses among Latino voters. In this city whose population is 82% Latino, Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump by 17 points in 2024. On Tuesday, Mikie Sherrill beat her Republican rival, Jack Ciattarelli, by 69 points in Union City.
Latino voters have not only expressed dissatisfaction with Donald Trump’s economic management. They also told him what they thought of the means and methods he uses to expel irregular migrants.
Surprising hypothesis: this defection of Latino voters could hurt Texas Republicans.
For what ? Because they redistributed their electoral map taking for granted that they would maintain the same level of support among Latino voters in the midterm elections as Donald Trump in 2024.
In theory, this redistricting should allow Texas Republicans to gain seven additional seats in the United States House of Representatives in 2026. In practice, it may be a different story.
Mamdani, scarecrow
This is not a problem that awaits Democrats in California, where voters on Tuesday approved a redrawing of the state’s electoral map in response to the Texas maneuver.
This is another victory that increases Democrats’ hopes for the midterm elections.
PHOTO KYLIE COOPER, REUTERS
New York City Mayor-designate Zohran Mamdani
But Republicans find at least one reason to celebrate Tuesday’s results. After the election of Zohran Mamdani, they believe they have found the scarecrow that they will be able to wave in all the constituencies of the country over the coming months.
On Wednesday morning, Republicans in the House of Representatives launched a digital ad denouncing the “socialist mayor” who previously advocated “defunding the police and abolishing ICE (the American federal immigration police)”.
“This is the future House Democrats want, and your city could be next,” the ad’s narrator says.
