The Red Temptation of New Jersey

(Saddle Brook, New Jersey) Separated from the island of Manhattan by the Hudson River, Bergen County has long been a Democratic stronghold, in addition to being the most populous in New Jersey with its approximately 957,000 inhabitants. But Everett Garnto, mayor of one of its 72 municipalities, is among the voters who are now threatening this tradition.

On September 4, this former police officer abandoned the Democratic Party and announced his support for Jack Ciattarelli, Republican candidate for governor of New Jersey, one of the most important issues in the elections held in the United States on November 4.

And his prediction on the outcome of this election is enough to worry his former party.

“He’s going to win by six or eight points,” the Garfield mayor said outside a dinner of Saddle Brook, a neighboring municipality, where the Republican candidate was expected on a recent October evening with Vivek Ramaswamy, one of the stars of the MAGA movement.

“When I came to support Mr. Ciattarelli, he was 10 points behind. And you know what? I think he is in the lead today. »

In fact, the polling average still gives a modest lead to Democratic candidate Mikie Sherrill, who has served in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2019.

But no one doubts that New Jersey’s electorate is increasingly red. In Bergen County, for example, Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 81,550 votes in 2020. Four years later, Kamala Harris won in the same place by just 13,993 votes.

A state barometer

Hence the question that hangs over the November 4 elections: will New Jersey go MAGA or, at least, red?

Usually, media attention is focused more on Virginia during these electoral meetings held a year after the presidential election. This southern state, where the post of governor is also at stake, then becomes a barometer used to measure the popularity of the president and predict the outcome of the mid-term elections the following year.

However, in 2025, this role is held by New Jersey, a blue state in the Northeast where the race is closer than in Virginia.

And these days, Democratic defections in favor of Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former elected official who is running for governor of the state for the third time, are not going unnoticed.

“You haven’t seen a wave of enthusiasm, a wave of support from Democratic leaders like myself, like this in contemporary times,” said Jamel Holley, on the sidelines of a citizens’ assembly held by Jack Ciattarelli at a bar in Elizabeth, the seat of Union County.

This former black elected official served in the New Jersey Assembly from 2015 to 2022 after becoming, at age 30, the youngest mayor of Roselle, another municipality in Union County.

Jack Ciatterelli wants to become the first Republican governor of New Jersey since Chris Christie, winner of a first term in 2009. In 2021, this businessman lost by only three points to Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who cannot seek a third term.

Courting Latinos

His presence in Elizabeth, one of New Jersey’s 29 majority-Hispanic municipalities, was unusual for a Republican candidate. It reflected a shift in approach inspired by the significant gains Donald Trump made in 2024 among the state’s Latinos, who make up 22% of the electorate.

“When you’re taken for granted, that’s exploitation,” Jack Ciattarelli said after noting that Hispanic- and Black-owned businesses receive less than 1 percent of all government contracts in New Jersey.

His remarks pleased Silvia Echevarria, owner of a small business, who was among the hundred people who came to speak with the Republican candidate in this bar in Elizabeth.

Jack Ciatterelli’s speech is a far cry from Donald Trump’s on racial equity and other topics, including illegal immigration. While praising the president’s handling of the southern border, the Republican candidate recently expressed opposition to the expulsion of illegal immigrants who have not committed crimes. He also said he was in favor of a “pathway to recognition,” a concept he described as a first step toward citizenship.

Obviously, he is engaging in a balancing act in a state where Donald Trump is far from unanimous. He himself has already been very critical of the occupant of the White House. In December 2015, he described him as “a charlatan” who “is not fit to hold the presidency.”

The return of plastic bags

However, last May, this same politician said he was “truly touched and honored” by the support of Donald Trump.

That said, he hardly mentions the president in his speeches, except to mock his Democratic rival’s incessant criticism of him.

“Going home tonight, if you get a flat tire, she’s going to want to blame President Trump,” he says, inevitably eliciting bursts of laughter.

In the dinner of Saddle Brook, he also hit the mark with one of his promises, which he mentioned after presenting his solution to reduce the amount of electricity bills, the sharp rise in which has become a major theme of the campaign.

“I could say I’m going to cut taxes, and I’d get a big round of applause. I say I’m going to bring back the plastic bags, and that’s a big deal,” he said in the crowded establishment.

The theme of crime is another one that the Republican candidate insists on and which comes up in the criticisms that his supporters address to the Democrats. The same goes for property taxes, a perennial issue in New Jersey.

Now added to these themes are questions related to sexual orientation and identity.

“I have four grandchildren and I don’t want them to be exposed to LGBTQ ideology,” said Rex Campbell, defining himself as “MAGA in the truest sense of the word”, before the arrival of Jack Ciatterelli in the dinner of Saddle Brook.

“Mikie Sherrill agrees that schools should allow children to change their name or gender without informing parents. This is madness. And that’s one of the reasons New Jersey will turn red on November 4th. »