For the first time since 2019, the American government fell into budgetary paralysis on Wednesday, due to the lack of understanding in the Senate. Hundreds of thousands of civil servants must find themselves unemployed, and government services considered non -essential are paused. Explanations.
What is paralyzed, exactly?
As the Senate failed to adopt a budgetary text before September 30 at 11:59 p.m., the United States government was found in shutdown : Funds dependent on the congress can no longer be allocated. This means that around 750,000 civil servants had to find themselves in technical unemployment, according to the budget office of the congress, resulting in service closings and slowdowns.
Federal employees considered to be essential – air controllers, for example – must continue to work, but without remuneration during paralysis. A feedback is paid once the impasse has been loose. Even if social security and mail are federal services, they are not directly assigned, because they do not depend on the budget voted annually. But paralysis still affects government services.
“There are many things that depend on the federal government and people do not realize it, such as helping to maintain roads or regulations on food security,” notes Jennifer Selin, law professor at Arizona State University. We must therefore expect queues in airports, closed national tourist sites, a delay in food inspections.
Why don’t the two parties manage to get along?
The dead end mainly affects the health sector: Democrats wish to extend subsidies to make health insurance more affordable, and the Republicans refuse. A meeting took place on Wednesday between Donald Trump and Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries – on occasion, these elected officials noted the presence of red caps signed “Trump 2028” in the presidential office, even if the Constitution prohibits him from presenting himself for a third term.
Photo J. Scott Applewhite, Associated Press
Democratic leaders Chuck Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries, at a press conference in Capitole on Monday
Senator Schumer also denounced the president’s “trolling”, which posted a video montage on his social network to make fun of his opponents after the announcement of paralysis.
What is the mechanism to get out?
Even if the Republicans have a majority of 53 out of 100 seats in the Senate, it is first necessary to obtain 60 votes to close the debates and go to the vote for the adoption of the budgetary text – for which a simple majority is sufficient. Two Democrats, Catherine Cortez Masto, from Nevada, and John Fetterman, from Pennsylvania, joined the Republicans. Like the independent Senator of Maine, Angus King, who usually joins the Democrats Caucus. A single republican senator, Rand Paul, from Kentucky, opposed the closing of the debates.
A new vote is scheduled for Friday; Democrats are likely to undergo pressure to convince them to change their choice. Republicans could also modify the rules that require 60 supports before moving on to the vote to bypass the Democratic refusal. “It would be considered a very deep change,” notes Jennifer Nicoll Victor, associate professor of political science at the Georges Mason University.
How could Trump’s vision change the situation?
“The Trump administration may have the impression that paralysis is playing in its favor,” said Mme Victor. She is already trying to reduce government size and reduce the role of congress anyway. The administration has announced massive layoffs to avoid technical unemployment. A gesture seen as an attempted intimidation by the Democrats.
“Another way of seeing the situation is that there has been so many violations of the rule of law by the Trump administration in recent months that, in the opinion of many, the United States is no longer considered a democratic regime, and are close to what political scientists call a competitive authoritarian regime, where the executive power is much more concentrated,” explains Mr.me Victor. And we have never known paralysis under a competitive authoritarian regime. »»
The democratic calculation is all the more perilous: if Trump takes advantage of the paralysis to consolidate his power, his base might want the party to have left him the field. If democratic elected officials allow the vote in favor of an unacceptable budgetary text in the eyes of their voters, their base could blame them.
What about social pressure?
It is the unknown that could determine the length of the paralysis. In December 2018 and January 2019, during Trump’s first term, the blocking lasted 35 days, a record. Purchased financially, essential workers, especially in airports, had started to get sick, because they could not afford the security services for their children or transport costs, for example. Resulting in delays and cancellations.
“It created enough pressure to push the congress to finally get to an agreement,” notes Mme Victor. But before you get there, it usually takes time. “If disturbances affect areas dear to the Republicans, such as the application of the Immigration Act, there could be more pressure for the Republicans to negotiate,” said Jennifer Selin.
With the France-Presse agency
