How were people in the region informed dangers?
The National Weather Service released a flood risk alert on Thursday, July 3 in the afternoon. The level of danger was then increased in new messages sent at the end of the evening, until the evacuation order, around 4 a.m.
Alerts are relayed on radio, television and cell phones in the risk area. However, this last method requires a signal, not always accessible in rural areas.
Americans can also subscribe to applications to receive this type of information.
What factors have been able to contribute to information dissemination problems?
“This is roughly one of the worst scenarios with regard to challenges related to alerts in danger,” deplores Erik R. Nielsen, assistant professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of Texas A&M University.
Alerts warning of an imminent danger have arrived at a time when most people sleep. It was a long weekend of leave, where campers were particularly numerous near the river. On the side of the civil authorities, the teams were probably reduced. The region is a resort with many camping sites, with more vulnerable structures. The water level has increased quickly.
And there are many of these people who were not local, for whom the sudden floods were less familiar or who did not understand the risks.
Erik R. Nielsen, deputy professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of Texas A & M University
Campers were unable to hear or not receive the alert, notes Abdul-Akeem Sadiq, professor at the School of Public Administration of the University of Central Florida. “But it is also essential that, when there is an alert, there are clear directives, which say what to do, with an evacuation procedure already in place,” says the emergency management expert. Which does not seem to have been the case here.
Was the federal services caps contributing to the drama?
The cuts in the services of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which oversees the National Weather Service, were criticized at the start of the year. Some 10 % of the workforce has left the service, according to American media. The meteorologist responsible for coordination for Kerr county has not been replaced, according to the Washington Post. But it is still difficult to assess the impact of cuts on events.
Why does Kerr’s county not have a mermaid?
The county of Kerr, where the most deaths are deplored, is located in “the alley of sudden floods”, one of the most dangerous places in the United States for these overflows. This is why, after a particularly important flood in 2015, local authorities assessed the idea of setting up an alert system including a mermaid. They asked for a subsidy of nearly 1 million US to the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), according to the Washington Postwithout obtaining it. The idea was later put aside.
Photo Sergio Flores, Reuters
A road from the county of Kerr, Texas, was still flooded on Monday.
American municipalities where the risks of tornado are high have chosen to install sirens. “It’s a good way to alert people, because an alarm is shaking, and someone who sleeps will probably hear him more than his phone,” said Sadiq. As long as you do emergency simulation tests and exercises regularly, he adds.
Kerr residents counted for years on a word of mouth method, according to the New York Timesa camp alerting its neighbor near the river.
“At night, it becomes a challenge …”, comments Mr. Nielsen. The best is to have several systems in place at the same time, to compensate for the risk of a failure, he insists. “A mermaid alert system can certainly work,” he says. But even there, there are documented problems, in places where they are used in the event of a tornado, for example. If we are inside and don’t hear it? And if we hear it, do we know what to do? »»
How to convince the population to act quickly in the event of a alert?
This is one of the challenges that preparation specialists in an emergency must constantly take into account.
“At the time of the alert at 1 am, the rain fell upstream of the most affected area,” notes Mr. Nielsen. So if someone looked outside, it didn’t seem so dangerous. »»
People are looking for visual benchmarks to act, but there were none at the time.
Erik R. Nielsen, deputy professor in the Department of Atmospheric Sciences of Texas A & M University
Alert systems have already experienced failures, pushing citizens to take these messages with a grain of salt. Weather forecasts are not always exact either. “This is something we see a lot,” notes Mr. Sadiq. People who say that at the last hurricane, for example, they had been told to evacuate and that they have not had damage, so they say that he will not happen still serious. »»
The alert system is very perfectible, he says. And the solution goes through more education and preparation upstream, say the two experts. “When there is a false alarm, it is also necessary to explain why,” says Nielsen.
With the France-Presse agency
