In a move that rocked diplomatic and economic circles around the world, US President Donald Trump announced his intention to issue an order to stop all US sanctions imposed on Syria, in a procedure described by analysts as “very unusual” and “almost unprecedented in the date of reducing modern sanctions.”
Experts – who spoke to Al -Jazeera Net – confirm that Trump’s declaration was remarkable, as it is based on a direct political decision by the American administration without complex negotiating conditions, unlike most of the previous penalty experiments that were usually conditional and going through long paths of strict international negotiations and obligations, as happened in cases such as Iran, Sudan or Cuba.
The American announcement in Riyadh came during a Gulf tour made by Trump, which included both Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE, which brought Syria file to the top of international attention, and raised many questions about the future of a country torn by a war that lasted more than a decade, as well as about the way these pledges will be translated into practical policies on the ground.
Experts pointed out that the decision carries a very important social and humanitarian dimension, as it may restore hope for the Syrians to improve their livelihood and restore basic services, in addition to the possibility of paying regional and international states and entities towards mitigating or lifting their restrictions from Syria, in the event that Washington applies its decision comprehensively and effectively.
Implementation challenges
Trump’s advertisement left the door open to a wave of doubts about the extent of the American administration’s ability to actually implement it, especially given the complex structure of US sanctions.
The first analyst in the United States program at the International Crisis Group Dylani Simon expressed her surprise and happiness at the decision at the same time, explaining, “I do not think that it happened before a US president pledged to lift all sanctions on a country suffering from severe sanctions such as Syria.”
Simon said – in statements to Al -Jazeera Net – that most similar cases, such as the experiments of lifting sanctions were conditional and related to treaties, concessions, monitoring programs and arduous negotiations, while it seems that the situation with Syria is completely different, “the current American administration ordered the lifting of sanctions completely without clear conditions.”
However, Simon emphasizes that reality is more complicated than just a presidential advertisement; The penalties imposed on Syria are diverse and multi -resource, as the congress was legitimized, and others were imposed by the ministries of trade, foreign or treasury, all of which require accurate procedures and protocols to lift them.
Despite all these challenges, the expert in the group of crisis believes that the matter is not impossible, because “if President Trump adheres publicly and is serious to move forward in his decision, and he used his political weight to push the relevant American parties to take real steps, then only when we can witness real and fundamental developments.”
Multiple repercussions
She adds to the previous developments, the first analyst for Syria’s affairs in the International Crisis Group, Nanar Hawash, new dimensions related to social and security repercussions, noting that “the lifting of sanctions will not only contribute to stimulating economic recovery, but will also be linked to steps that lead to a breaking cycle of violence in Syria for more than a decade.”
Hawash focuses that the economic collapse itself was among the most important reasons that nurtured insecurity and erosion of basic services and led to the escalation of local grievances and pushed many Syrians towards armed groups. Hawash concludes that the decision to lift the sanctions “sends a strong signal to the foreign authorities and the hesitant countries by starting to re -engage with Syria.”
Regarding political effects, the first adviser to the International Crisis Group, Darren Khalifa, described the decision as “a major positive development for the war torn by the war, and strategically progressing in relations between the United States and Syria.”
According to her opinion, the public enthusiasm of the American president and the clarity of his statements, raises the possibility of the decision actually implementing on the ground, despite the imbalance of the bureaucratic balance and the currently unclear schedule.
“If Trump’s directives are implemented in the same range and spirit that appeared in the advertisement, this will open the door to a new period of economic and political relations between Washington and Damascus, and it may provide Syria’s opportunity to get out of its long isolation.”
Immediate recovery
On the economic level, analyzes indicate that the greatest impact of the lifting of sanctions will appear quickly, especially on the Syrian pound, which has witnessed a significant deterioration in recent years.
The Economist Affairs Editor in Al -Jazeera Net, Muhammad Awazaz, expects that “the lifting of sanctions will lead to an immediate recovery of the Syrian pound that broke the 9000 pounds against the dollar recently, with the flow of foreign investments and the transfers of hard currency,” explaining that the banking sector will be one of the first beneficiaries through the return of financial transfers and the support of the local economy.
And Afzaz points to the great importance of Syrian expatriates, as millions of them are around the world, “and these will contribute to the flow of foreign currency, enhance the reserves of the Syrian Central Bank and support the value of the lira.” It also indicates that the investment sector will know a qualitative shift, with the return of foreign and Syrian expatriate investors, and perhaps regional countries such as the Gulf states.
In the medium and long term, it is expected that “a huge money is a flow of investment and reconstruction, especially since the cost of rebuilding Syria is estimated at at least 150 billion dollars”, which will give the Syrian economy the opportunity to expand and enter global debt markets and start developing the main sectors, especially oil, energy and infrastructure.
American and international sanctions have escalated on Damascus in an unprecedented way since the outbreak of the Syrian revolution in 2011, and the sanctions began a relatively limited start, but they quickly expanded and branched to include a long list of individuals, government entities and vital sectors such as banks, energy and infrastructure, in addition to a ban on import, export and money transfer.
The “Caesar Law” (issued in 2016) contributed to tightening the economic cordon around the Syrian regime and those who deal with it, which made Syria almost isolated from global markets.
Therefore, the US President’s decision to lift the sanctions represents a historical shift in Washington’s dealings with the Syrian file, as it announces for the first time the opening of the door for a new stage of economic and political openness, and restores hope for the path of reconstruction and ending the international isolation that Syria lived for more than a decade.
