Tehran- The return of Tehran and Washington to the nuclear negotiating table, after the Iranian market fell after US President Donald Trump’s arrival at the White House, contributed to the recovery of Iran’s markets, led by the stock exchange and the exchange rate of local currency.
After the exchange rate reached – the eve of the first round of Muscat negotiations about 3 weeks ago – one million and 60 thousand Iranian riyals per dollar in the parallel market, the Iranian currency recorded a quick recovery during the past weeks, recovering about 25% of its value.
The exchange rate reached about 780 thousand Iranian riyals for the green currency, until last Wednesday evening, before the announcement of the postponement of the negotiations, and then began a decline, which reached about 860 thousand Iranian riyals until Saturday evening.
Negotiation news
The Tehran Stock Exchange witnessed a remarkable recovery, coinciding with the first round of negotiations hosted by Muscat, equal to 62 thousand and 850 points, so that the general index settled at two million and 908 thousand and 647 points.
The Iranian Stock Exchange continued to improve its main indicators during the past days and weeks, exceeding the threshold of 3 million points, to jump the general index to 3 million and 178 thousand and 850 points with the closure of the last trading session last week.
While the Tehran Stock Exchange did not take the path of recovery along the lines of the Iranian riyal, and it has been ranging up and down the influence of the demands of the Iranian and American sides and their statements on the media, and took a negative curve from the first minutes of the trading session on Saturday, which is the first session of trading since the announcement of the postponement of the fourth round of nuclear negotiations, recording a decline of about 61 thousand and 850 points.
On the other hand, the positive reports issued by the nuclear negotiations during the past three weeks led to a slight recession and decline in the housing and cars markets, pending what will result in the coming days and weeks, and whether it will lead to the presence of major car manufacturers and real estate in the country.
Emmatugule expectations
Meanwhile, economic expert Hussein and Razi – who is the former head of the Iranian Chamber of Commerce – believes that the reason for the great influence of Iranian markets with negotiation reports – without reaching an agreement – is the impact of US sanctions on his country’s economy in general.
Speaking to Al -Jazeera Net, a weapon and Rizi assert that part of what the Iranian markets witnessed during the past days stems from the emotional behavior of customers and their expectations of markets ’trends after reaching any possible agreement or failure of negotiations, as well as that the exchange rate fluctuations show a huge amount of“ household reserves from the dollar ”.
Because of the fascinating inflation in the country, the Iranians are looking for safe havens to keep their savings, by buying difficult currencies – headed by the dollar – or precious metals, including gold and silver, so they keep them in homes instead of depositing them in banks.
In the opinion of a weapon and a weapon, the financial markets are usually affected by the security situation, explaining that as much as media and security reports on American military mobilization in the region contributed to the decline in the value of the national currency and the collapse of the stock index, positive news about the progress of nuclear negotiations would reflect positively on the financial markets in Iran.
Economic scenarios
The former head of the Iran Chamber of Trade and Industry expected that the general index of the Iranian Stock Exchange will continue to improve it in the near and medium term, provided that the positive atmosphere on negotiations continues or the two sides reach an agreement on controversial issues.
He believed that the Iranian riyal may continue to restore other simple parts of its value during the next short period, but the pace, according to his expectation, will not last long for reasons that are closely related to the obstacles and challenges that the Iranian economy may face during the coming period.
He concluded that in the event that Tehran and Washington signs a nuclear agreement during the coming period, the national economy will record growth of 8% during the first or three years, accompanied by proportional inflation, noting that if negotiations fail or Israel fails an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities, economic indicators may take a catastrophic trend that cannot be predicted.
American companies
For his part, economic researcher Muhammad Islami links the index of Iranian markets during the coming period to the outcome of the stalled negotiations between Tehran and Washington, the extent of the resilience of any possible agreement and its ability to cancel US sanctions and neutralize foreign pressure from financial exchanges, and his success in attracting American investments to participate in the rotation of the national economy.
Speaking to Al -Jazeera Net, Islami says that no agreement can result from the current nuclear negotiations unless it is accompanied by a road map that explains how American companies use the Iranian economy cake, which justifies the Iranian markets to interact closely with the reports issued by the negotiations.
He continued that the participation of American companies in Iranian projects will be followed by similar steps to European, Gulf and Eastern companies that will in turn lead to a great leap in the Iranian economy, especially in light of the increase in oil exports and the return of returns to the country.
Negotiation results
Upon his indication that the exchange rate in Iran was affected by the simply affected by the Tehran and Washington agreement to return to the policy of negotiation, even indirectly, an Islamic expected that the Iranian currency will restore another part of its value to reach about 650 thousand riyals per dollar in the event that the discussions are crowned by signing an agreement that puts an end to the dispute over the Tehran nuclear program.
The same spokesman explained that if the diplomatic path fails without resorting to the military option, the Iranian markets will return to what it was before the start of the negotiations, with a difference that the Iranian economy will move faster towards cooperation with China.
Islam concluded by saying that the global economy will be affected in proportion to the intensity and scope of any conflict that the region may witness during the coming period, because the task of Tehran’s allies in the axis of the region will turn from providing security in its country to destabilizing the security of its archenemy and targeting their interests wherever they have the opportunity.
