Through the trade war, US President Donald Trump is seeking to “make America a great again” by motivating American companies to reduce its dependence on foreign goods, return to local manufacturing, and thus “revive the American industry again” according to the White House.
Trump pledged to re -hold his historical campaign to impose customs definitions to revive local industrialization, and announced that “jobs and factories will strongly return to our country” expecting a new “golden era” in America.
Trump’s strong message touches nostalgia for the past, economic frustration and national pride, but the reality seems more complicated, as the data indicates that the American economy is still not prepared for a fundamental shift towards manufacturing, and that any expansion of productive capabilities will require years of investment in infrastructure, training and rehabilitation of the labor market.
According to the American Labor Statistics Office, the agriculture and industrial sectors witnessed a significant decline in the number of workers during the past decades, and the vast majority of Americans are working in services sectors such as technology, financing, and health care.
In June 1979, labor in the industrial sector reached a historical peak of 19.6 million, and in the same month in 2019, the number of employment reached 12.8 million, a decrease of 6.7 million or 35% from the historical peak.
In the seventies of the last century, one in every 5 Americans (i.e. about 20% of the workforce) was working in the industrial sector, but today, the percentage decreased to about one out of every 12, that is, less than 9% according to the previous source, can Trump or any future administration achieve the dream of reviving the American industry? Will the American citizen be ready to return to factories?
In the coming lines, Al -Jazeera Net seeks to answer these questions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0evzr6t-rw
Workforce is not eligible
Economists warn that focusing on manufacturing may raise the cost of living on the American consumer, and the progress made by the United States may weaken in the fields of knowledge economy, according to NBC News.
Many experts and observers believe that even in light of the availability of unlimited financing and political support, the rehabilitation of the workforce, and the building of the necessary infrastructure requires many years of work, and according to the American Labor Statistics Office, official vocational training programs usually extend 4 years.
In the same context, Intel estimates that building semiconductor factories takes between 3 and 4 years.
Political instability is also a major obstacle to this path, as companies hesitate to pump long -term investments in light of the possibility of changing commercial policies in just a few months.
In this context, Richard Mansfield, professor of economics at Colorado University, said: “Companies will not start employing and training cadres unless they are convinced that customs tariffs are permanent,” adding that “instead of enhancing local production, companies are likely to resort to raising prices, or searching for alternative suppliers such as Vietnam, Chile or both” according to the “NBC News”.
Trump’s first period witnessed a clear example of this trend, as many companies, under the pressure of customs duties, were forced to transfer their production lines and factories from China to Mexico.
As for the professor of economics at Arizona State University, Dennis Hoffman, he expressed the potential impact of customs duties in explicit terms, saying: “It will end up damaging consumers throughout the United States.”
Interest in consumption
At the same time, the focus on the production of commodities ignores another fact, which is that America has a global advantage in exports of services paid in business, travel and intellectual property.
The surplus in the balance of services in the United States, which amounts to $ 25.2 billion, disappears due to its inability to produce goods of 156.7 billion dollars, according to the previous source.
Hoffman said that customs definitions “ignore this economic reality, which leaves consumers at higher prices for basic commodities and less spending in the areas where our economy exceeds … cheap commodities mean more money for saving and investing and allocating it elsewhere. We are in a much better position because of the ability to reach international trade.”
He added: “The deficit is not necessarily negative. If you suffer from a commercial deficit, you are not a loser. We are suffering from a commercial deficit because we are consumed, so we wanted to consume our ability to produce production.”
Industry men against Trump
While Trump faces support from some industrialized supporters, many American manufacturers express their doubts about the effectiveness of these policies, they indicated that the problems of supply chains, high costs, and workforce needs, in addition to the difficulty of transferring production to the United States, may constitute a great obstacle to the implementation of these promises.
For example, each smartphone contains parts made in dozens of countries, as well as with cars, semi -conductors, and textiles, all of which are interconnected in a system that took decades that took to establish decades, and the reproduction to the United States will be expensive, and from the logistical point of view, a real nightmare, according to the writer John McLielion in his article in the American newspaper “The Hill”.
In the context, the first vice president of the Equipment Manufacturers Association, Cape Edberg, said that “talking about the transfer of each part of the manufacturing process to the United States contradicts reality, as companies rely on components and hand working from all over the world, and this cannot be transferred to America,” according to writer Catherine Lucy in an article at Bloomberg Agency.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jsed62dtief
Americans do not want to return to factories
The writer John McGlion says: “Suppose the end of the United States has succeeded in building factories and regained millions of jobs in these factories. But this world has been loyal to irreversible. Today, the manufacturing sector requires specialized skills, robots, programming and fine engineering, and the United States has spent contracts to keep students away from professional fields. Now, there is a shortage of skilled employment. Who will occupy all these jobs that are back home? “
McGlion asks about the alternatives to compensate for the deficiency, saying:
- “Foreign workers? But this is a fundamental strengthening of the hypothesis” that makes America great again “, which depends on the promotion of jobs within the United States.”
- “American workers are not trained? In this case, problems can be expected in quality, increased error rates, and weak competitiveness compared to China and other major industrial countries.”
Then the writer asks another question about the desire of the American youth to return to work in factories, saying: “Ask the youth what they want to do, and you will find them prefer to work in areas such as technology, financing, health care and entrepreneurship, anything but work in traditional factories. This cultural transformation has become an irreplaceable reality. The expectations of work have changed radically. The idea that millions of Americans are eager to work in factories is an idea that is completely far from reality”.
482 thousand jobs
On the ground, the United States does not have the employment needed to employ more manufacturing facilities, as there were 482,000 vacancies in the manufacturing sector in February only, and you do not find those who fill them in accordance with the US Labor Statistics Office.
A poll between manufacturers conducted by Nam in the first quarter of 2025, stated that 48.4% face challenges in attracting and retaining the qualified workforce, according to Bloomberg.
Finally, Trump’s economic policies remain controversial, as there are still great doubts about her ability to achieve promises to return to manufacturing to the United States in light of the challenges of supply chains, costs and workforce crisis. Over time, these policies will remain the focus of sharp discussions that may determine not only the fate of Trump or the Republican Party, but the fate of the American economy itself.
