Baghdad – The activity of the Iraqi oil sector has finally accelerated in terms of concluding deals and projects with foreign companies, which made it lead the list of the largest oil deals in March 2025 for the second month in a row, while economic experts believe that the direct economic return of these agreements may be limited in the near term.
Iraq for the second month in a row occupied the lead site in the list of 5 largest oil deals in March 2025, thanks to two deals, one of which was introduced through a unique and distinct technique to discover breakdowns, while the other was to develop oil fields in Kirkuk Governorate, according to a report of the energy platform.
On March 26, Iraq concluded an agreement with the British Oil Company (BP), to develop 4 oil fields in Kirkuk Governorate, and it is expected to add about 150 thousand barrels per day to the country’s production capacity.
According to the deal, the British company will invest about $ 25 billion in developing the 4 oil fields in Iraq, as this amount includes investments in oil, gas, energy and water.
Iraq witnessed a technical deal to exploit robots in discovering breakdowns of oil pipelines, as the Iraqi Central Oil Company signed the agreement with the Chinese company (EBS) operating for the southeast Baghdad field to use robots to discover faults, and advanced technical techniques have been chapted to address the risks of erosion and leakage in pipes, using buffer coating, according to high -quality standards.
Iraq, along with Saudi Arabia, was at the top of crude oil deals last February 2025, which varied between crude oil export agreements, its sale and purchase, and the “acquisition” shares purchase deals on projects, as well as the creation of giant projects.
Unreasonable contracts
The oil expert, Bilal Khalifa, expressed his deep concern and strong criticism of the recent deals that the Iraqi government has concluded with investment companies to produce oil, describing them as “well -not deliberate contracts” and involves “several caveats” that threaten Iraq’s economic interests and international obligations.
Khalifa said in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net, that the current Iraqi production level is approximately 4.4 million barrels per day, taking into account the stoppage of production in the Kurdistan region, noting that the Iraqi government usually resort to reducing production from the fields subject to national administration at any decrease in demand or when needed, in order to avoid paying penal amounts for investment companies contracted with, as the government is committed to paying profitable costs even on the reduced quantities produced.
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He stressed that this mechanism is linked to Iraq’s obligations to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which determines a ceiling for the production of member states.
He stressed that “it is not possible to increase the current share of Iraq, even if the Iraqi production ceilings rise,” which raises serious questions about the feasibility of the declared plans to increase production to 6 million barrels or more.
Khalifa asked about the true dimensions of these plans, inquiring about whether Iraq “intends to leave the OPEC Plus alliance to ensure export outside the ceilings alone, or that it has the intention to re -negotiate with the organization’s countries to increase the share of Iraq.”
In a related context, the oil expert warned that the second scenario, which is negotiating to increase the share of Iraq, may create a “new problem” represented in the impact of this increase on global oil prices, which may lead to its decline.
He stressed that “any decline will not be in the interest of Iraq,” especially since the Iraqi budget was prepared on the basis of a virtual price per barrel at $ 70, while the current value of Basra oil barrel is about 60 dollars.
The oil expert said that “any increase in production means a greater decrease in the prices of Basra oil,” unless OPEC agrees to increase the share of Iraq in exchange for reducing the share of another country, which raises questions about “the country that will accept to reduce its share for Iraq.”
Regarding the expected benefits of Iraq from these investments, especially the Pretch Petroleum Company (BP), Khalifa expressed his surprise at the timing of these deals, indicating that “it was assumed that Iraq’s contract with” BP “regarding the Kirkuk fields was not now, but that he contracted with them on fields that have rights problems, such as the common border fields and the disputed fields in the first license round to be resolved.”
He considered that the conclusion of such contracts “after more than 15 years of licensing rounds” represents a “problem” because it did not provide Iraq positively due to the mentioned determinants.
Political importance
For his part, the economist, Nabil Al -Ali, reduced the desired economic importance of projects and deals recently concluded by Iraq, pointing to the limited economic return on the country.
Al -Ali said in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net, that the deals concluded by Iraq may bear political importance and contribute to diversifying foreign investments, especially in the oil sector, which witnessed a remarkable Chinese presence, however, he ruled out that these deals will make a fundamental shift in the Iraqi oil industry, referring to the agreed production ceiling that does not exceed 150 thousand barrels per day.
On the financial returns, Al -Ali stressed that the financial return is not only related to Iraq’s ability to extract oil, but to its ability to export it, which is subject to OPEC agreements and the export restrictions imposed, noting that Iraq has the ability to produce about 500 thousand additional barrels per day, but the export determinants prevent this.
On the agreement with a Chinese company for maintenance of oil transport pipelines or the discovery of breakdowns using robots, Al -Ali saw that this issue does not rise to the level of the “big project” or “huge technology”, stressing that the use of robots has become common.
He added that it was better for national companies to implement such projects instead of supporting foreign companies.
He pointed out that this type of deals will not provide large -scale job opportunities, expecting that a thousand jobs will not exceed a job, which means that its impact on the labor market will be limited and does not rise to the level of aspirations.
Al -Ali stressed that these deals, in his appreciation, do not represent a qualitative shift in terms of the economic return that Iraq can count on in the near term.
