The IMF excludes the recession despite the rules fears economy

The Director General of the International Monetary Fund, Crystalina Georgiva, said that US President Donald Trump’s endeavor to impose comprehensive customs duties creates severe fog and affects confidence, but it is unlikely to lead to recession in the near term.

“We are not witnessing a severe influence” until now on the customs duties imposed by Trump or threatened to impose it since his return to the White House, “Georgiviva added in an interview at the Reuters Night News Maker forum yesterday.

She stated that the International Monetary Fund is likely to reduce its economic expectations slightly in its upcoming update to the global economy prospects that are issued after about 3 weeks, but we “do not see an economic stagnation waving on the horizon.”

Growth estimates

In January, the International Monetary Fund raised its estimates of the 2025 global economic growth to 3.3% from 3.2% in its previous estimation in October, and most of this increase is due to an increase of half a percentage of expectations for the United States to 2.7%.

However, Georgeva now expects the update of the global economic prospects report scheduled for April during the Spring Fund of the International Monetary Fund in Washington, a slight “correction” of reducing these estimates.

Trump has imposed since his return to the White House in January 20% on all commodities received from China, and seeks to impose customs duties by 25% on most of the goods from Canada and Mexico tomorrow, Wednesday, and the imposition of large customs duties on steel and aluminum imports, and announced the imposition of customs duties by 25% on imported cars, and announced that April 2 will be “the day of liberation”, as it intends to In it, universal customs duties are revealed.

Increased risk

The unexpected pace for announcing customs duties and applying them to investors’ expectations, and major American stock indicators decreased by about 10% since mid -February due to fears that customs duties will slow down or even cause stagnation.

Georgiviva said that the more uncertainty in Trump’s approach to customs duties policy continues, the greater the risk of expectations.

“The closer the clarity of the matter, the better, because the longer the uncertainty, as our research shows, the greater the possibility of its negative impact on growth.”