Damascus – After an anticipation that lasted for more than 3 months, and in a move described as an important shift in the history of Syria, Syrian President Ahmed Al -Shara signed with the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) oppressed on March 10 this year, an agreement to integrate the Qasd forces into state institutions, at a time when the agreement stressed the unity of the Syrian territory and the rejection of division projects.
The agreement also stipulated that all civil and military institutions affiliated with the self -administration in northeastern Syria within the institutions of the Syrian state, including border crossings, airports, and oil and gas fields.
For his part, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Mazloum Abdi, said a few days ago that Qasd intends to integrate its forces into the Syrian Ministry of Defense under the name “Legion 76”, which is committed to carrying out the tasks assigned to him throughout the country, while another part of his forces will deploy to the border to enhance security and stability.
Abdi added, in his statement to the ASA news network, that all oil burners will be canceled in the east of the country, and all crude oil tanks will be transported to the Syrian state refineries.
Historical agreement and breakthrough
Syrian economist Younis Al -Karim describes the agreement as “historical”, considering that he will eliminate the idea of a destroyed war on the Syrian economy.
Al -Karim indicated in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net that the agreement is still in the experimental stage for a period of 6 months, speaking about the positive impact of the agreement on the economic reality in the country, through:
- Take advantage of the license for self -management from the Caesar Law.
- Contributing to the effective freezing of European Union sanctions.
- Except the problem of oil supplies and electricity by leaving it and bringing it from self -management areas.
The Karim explains that the agreement gives the Syrian government international legitimacy, and this supports the suspension of sanctions for an additional six months.
For his part, Syrian economist Ayman Abdel Nour believes that the agreement contributes to improving the economic conditions in the country and “this is settled”, but that improvement rate remains suspended on the extent of the international community’s contribution to achieving and facilitating this breakthrough.
Abdel Nour considered, in an interview with Al -Jazeera Net, that the agreement is a political umbrella, but the application and success of the accurate economic and security agreements requires the activation of the last item from it; It is the formation of executive committees that supervise the application of the agreement and the solution of the contentious points, which are the most dangerous points that may “explode the agreement”, as the expert said.
Energy and fuel
The Karim believes that the agreement achieves many benefits for the energy sector in the short term, as it is possible to “secure oil and gas from the exempt and excluded self -administration areas from the Caesar Law by exploiting the suspension of some sanctions, which allows the sale of oil abroad and provide it inside, and thus encourage other countries to cooperate with Syria.”
The Karim adds that there is also a possibility to benefit from suspending the sanctions on the central bank, and allowing it to deal with it to secure spare parts for infrastructure institutions, specifically electricity.
This is also what Abdel Nour also goes, who considers that the agreement provides the possibility to better secure hydrocarbons for Syria in the next stage, but to obtain the best results and the largest benefits of the agreement, it is necessary to fully lift the sanctions, because raising them allows the major American companies in particular – to enter Syria and work to improve all the productive energies of oil wells, according to his appreciation.
Abdel Nour notes that the agreement allowed the Syrian government the possibility to store and generate electricity to all the country’s governorates, but this needs to provide the necessary funds, because the process of leaving and bringing electricity will be expensive, which must be taken into account.
The ousted Syrian President Bashar al -Assad’s regime depended on the rental of oil supplies from the areas of self -management and Iran, after the overall oil wells left its control starting in 2012, and he secured about 50 thousand barrels per day, at a time when the average demand for oil in Syria was about 100 thousand barrels per day.
Yellow gold
On the other hand, the cream indicates that this agreement is pushing towards:
- Securing the food resource for all parts of Syria during the next year, especially the wheat, which is rich in the regions of Shams, in eastern Syria.
- Improving government revenues, which were previously drained in providing hydrocarbons and food.
- Securing cash stability, because there is a very huge financial bloc of local and foreign criticism in self -management areas.
Al -Karim believes that the success of this agreement between the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces contributes in the long run to achieving the country’s food security by relying on local production, and improves cash reserves.
While Abdel -Nour stresses that “the abundance of wheat after the agreement means first, it means securing the bread material more, and thus its price decreased after it recorded an increase in recent months, and secondly, the barley is necessary for livestock, which was previously imported from the Qasd of its first product.”
It is noteworthy that the wheat crops crops have declined significantly in the areas controlled by the ousted Syrian regime, which were equal to about 70% of the country’s area, against the background of the exit of several major areas producing the material in the northeast of the country from its control.
In 2010, Syria’s production of wheat exceeded the barrier of 3 million tons annually, but it gradually decreased in the subsequent years to reach only 2024 to 720 thousand tons, while government sources estimated the country’s need of the article by 2.5 million tons annually.
The return of investors and reconstruction
In the medium term, the agreement can encourage the increase in financial transfers to Syria by external entities (among them individuals), taking advantage of the special exception to Western economic sanctions in the regions of Qasd, and the American license of the Central Bank, and thus can circumvent these sanctions and encourage the return of many Syrian investors to pump money to infrastructure, according to the cream.
As for taking advantage of the long -term agreement, the expert believes that the issue is related to the legislative and legal structure issued by the new government, and the appointment of a government that the West accepts, which contributes to extending the license and freezing the sanctions.
The Karim notes that the increase in investments will lead to the move of the economy, and he says that this agreement would reduce pressure on the hard currency by relying on self -sufficiency and local resources.
The agreement will help to launch the reconstruction process, especially in infrastructure as a result of the expected abundance of fuel, which is the nerve of industry and the nerve of reconstruction, according to the expert.
According to the generous, the opening of markets between the regions of the Syrian government and the self -administration area – in which about 4 million people live – improves trade movement, thus increasing production, attracting new workforce forces, reducing the unemployment index, and reducing the congestion in Syria as a result of demobilization operations in recent months.
