A state of anticipation experienced by the global economy during the election campaign of US President Donald Trump, but after assuming power on January 20, the anticipation turned into a state of confusion, whether internally or externally, especially among the major commercial partners of America.
What reflects the state of confusion internally for America, what was shown by foreign trade statistics, during January, of the trade balance deficit (for goods and services) $ 131.4 billion, an increase of 34% from what was the situation in December 2024.
As for the commodity trade in America, it has been observed that commodity imports amounted to 329 billion dollars in January, an increase of $ 36 billion over the reality of merchandise imports in December 2024, which means that importers tried to bring the largest amounts that can be obtained from production requirements, before Trump raised customs duties.
Trump has adopted customs duties by 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, and in the case of China amounted to 20%, and Trump promised that he had a plan to prepare with 25% customs duties on imports from the European Union.
But a few days after his decision to impose customs duties on Canada and Mexico by 25%, he returned and excluded these products for the “USMCA” agreement (the United States, Mexico and Canada agreement), but it will be reviewed in this matter in early April, according to the progress in the issues of drugs and humans from these two countries to America.
Trump’s decisions were not reacted by Canada, Mexico and China, and similar decisions were made to impose customs duties at the same percentage of imports from America.
The new was the approach of Canada and China on March 5 to the World Trade Organization, and to provide what is known as advice, that is, the latter hold sessions to consult between the two parties to the conflict, about the decisions taken related to customs duties, and the settlement of the matter is friendly, if this step fails, the organization’s dispute resolution is directed, and the request to control the case in question.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h_uiimgczas
Trump and American interior policies
Trump’s economic and commercial policies can be read internally, as they crystallize about 3 axes:
- Expanding the circle and capabilities of local production.
- Work to increase jobs permanently and strongly.
- Ensure the importance of considerations for national security.
Due to the customs fees that Trump has already imposed, and entered into force, the burdens of living on the American citizen will increase for one family by two thousand dollars, according to the estimate of a study by Yale University, due to the high costs of obtaining goods and services, which means high inflation rates, which are in the opposite direction for the policy of curbing the price heights adopted by the American Federal Reserve.
In the event of high inflation rates, the Federal Reserve (the US Central Bank) will not adopt a monetary policy that reduces interest, which is the opposite of what Trump wants, and it is expected that he will accelerate the current interest levels of clash between Trump and the head of reserve.
The agricultural sector is one of the affected people from Trump’s commercial policies, as it is the first target by China’s customs fees in the trade war with America. In Trump’s first state, he had to provide support to the agricultural sector by about 14 billion dollars as compensation for the losses of agricultural exports resulting from the lifting of customs duties in China.
At the level of the beneficiaries, several categories can be monitored, including local producers, who benefit from the commercial protection provided by Trump, through a high customs duties policy on imports, so that local commodities will be cheaper than imported goods, and some industries may work under this policy to monopolize the American market, which increases its profits.
Customs protection may result in pumping new investments from the American private sector, as well as the foreigner, which means providing new job opportunities and absorbing employees expelled from federal agencies, especially since Trump announced that he has obtained approvals for investment in America by foreigners by about 1.7 trillion dollars, although pumping investments with this number requires time, which makes its fruits achieve in the medium and long term.
Trump’s return on the global economy
In the short term, Trump’s policies are clearly effective on the oil market; In light of the expectations of the decline in global trade rates, and the increasing restrictions that the global economy will witness with regard to international trade, oil prices still maintain their declining rates. On March 7, 2025, oil prices in its weekly average reached about $ 70 a barrel of oil from Brent crude, and about $ 66 a barrel of American crude.
If Trump expands more customs duties on the European Union and India, the future of oil prices will be the trend towards more decline, and this in turn is transferred to a negative view of the rest of the oil market components, in terms of investments, transportation, oil insurance market and its carriers.
And the crisis of the decline in oil prices after mid -2014 to 2018, investments in the oil field decreased significantly, as well as the rest of the activities related to the oil sector were affected by transportation and insurance.
But this analysis comes in light of the stability of other factors, meaning that the rest of the world will acquiesce to Trump’s policies.
We think that by expanding the circle of states – which will raise customs duties on its imports – will push it to be incapable, but rather this may lead to a state of isolation or almost isolation for America and this may be the appropriate opportunity to have a “BRICS” bloc to a tangible role in performing the global economy, and even forming a multi -polar global economic system.
The developing and emerging countries may have an opportunity to rebuild international institutions, or the establishment of other institutions, which express the interests of the largest possible number of countries in the world, unlike what exists now as the majority of international economic institutions are subject to the control of America and the West.
The position of international organizations
International institutions have announced, several times, their objection to the American policies for trading trade, and this was evident since the first Trump state, and the bank’s periodic reports and the International Fund mentioned commercial protection, as one of the threats to global economic growth.
However, Trump does not care about the World Trade Organization, and sees it biased against America, and even believes that America must deviate from the membership of this organization, so it has been issued in issuing its decisions to raise the value of customs duties, without any consideration of the organization or the recommendations and decisions that will result in it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cqand9qbloc
There is no doubt that Trump’s view of this World Trade Organization would weaken the latter’s role, especially since its actions that are slow to take recommendations or decisions, and its judicial system is almost in the rule of the dead, because America is keen on not completing the arbitrators within the judicial system in global trade.
Weakening global trade will have negative results, by achieving more confidence in the institutions of the global economic system, and asserting that the major countries are running these organizations according to their interests only, and that developing and emerging countries are just members without validity or interests in these organizations.
In conclusion, it seems that Trump’s talk about the goal of America’s return is a “great nation” that stems from the saying “Whoever owns gold sets the rules” but what Trump forgot that he no longer alone has gold, there are other partners who have shares of yellow metal, and perhaps his trade policy and fueling the trade war globally will not be able to return to the global economy to the doctrine Import or without imports, to get more gold.
It is difficult for Trump to achieve this, as the reality of the majority of partners in the global economy calls for freedom of trade, and that it achieves the interests of everyone.
There is an important indication that may determine the behavior of the rest of the partners in the global economy, which is the extent to which the global economy partners of Trump policy are appreciated, do they consider it a personal policy, and thus go away with the end of its mandate? Or will they consider it an approach to the American state, and therefore, they start adopting counter -policies for what America adopts and moving forward to establishing new rules for a new global economic system?
